Three to trade for the WGC Mexico at GC de Chapultepec

Another quiet week last week. This is the norm. The trick is to try minimise your liabilities when things don't go so well, which for example as I tweeted as an update, you could have exited for 60% of your total liability back at the half way stage of Riv if you so chose. That was when none of the 5 plays really ever challenged. You keep it ticking over this way when backing very long odds, then wait for the good weeks to strike - like Lucas Herbert in Dubai, or week 1 where we had the semi monopoly in 2 events at halfway. Scroll on for this week's plays...

Note: We are making these weekly trading column plays on Betfair - click this link to open an account if new. To know more about the concept of golf trading and the particular steps to this method, see my back to lay guide here.

Looking at the WGC this week, and given the links with European themes and courses like Crans Sur Sierre and Olgiata, a few players jumped out. Larrazabal says Chapultepec is like an old European style parklands. Ewen Murray mentioned at the Italian Open last year that Olgiata GC reminded him visually of Chapultepec and I remember nodding my head in agreement when he spoke about it on comms. Bernd Wiesberger and Matt Fitzpatrick were the 1 and 2 there and Fitz has won twice in Crans-Montana at altitude. Branden Grace is the other player and form at what is a very specific test for me is huge. None of the 3 have any real course form so I prefer to bet them more speculatively at inflated prices

Anyway the plan is to back the following players on Betfair: Branden Grace 220.0, Bernd Wiesberger 190.0 and Matt Fitzpatrick 60.00 and see how things are looking at halfway (as a guide). I've doubled the usual stake on Fitzpatrick. (£20s as a guide, so £40 on him)

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

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To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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