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Golf Betting: WGC Mexico Championship Tips



Experience will be key as the WGC Mexico Championship hits Golf Club De Chapultepec




tags: WGC Mexico Championship, Golf betting tips, WGC Mexico Championship tips, WGC Mexico Championship betting tips

Distance and spin control will play a big part at high altitude for the WGC Mexico championship in Chapultepec

WGC Mexico Championship target player profile:

Players experienced at the Chapultepec venue, with a tidy short game (experience chipping on Kikuyu) tick the box. Strong records at tracks like Montreaux, Crans and others at high altitude may be a pointer. Accuracy over power.

The course - golf de Club Chapultepec Par 71, 7345

Key features: Old school parklands style track playing 10% shorter than it's length at altitude in Mexico. Deep treeline and very tight from the tips. Back to front sloping, spinny, double tiered greens. Sticky Kikuyu around greens

Premium on: Accuracy, distance and spin control from approach - must leave ball underneath hole but carry to top tier and control spin

Chicken nuggets: for the Mexico Championship

All types of games can win here. Thomas and Rory used driver in 2019 and smashed it off the tee. Caveat is you must hit it very straight or suffer big numbers. Lots of maths involved in approach shots. Birdies and bogeys (or worse) a plenty

WGC Mexico Championship Rankings
(est. win odds to 100% fair book)
1. Rory Mcilroy 7/1
2. Dustin Johnson 7/1
3. Justin Thomas 10/1
4. Jon Rahm 12/1
5. Xander Schauffele 14/1
6. Hideki Matsuyama 16/1
7. Adam Scott 20/1
8. Tommy Fleetwood 20/1
9. Paul Casey 25/1
10. Webb Simpson 25/1...

WGC Mexico Championship tips:

WGC Mexico Championship Featured Tip : (scroll down)

*Join the members mailing list >> for all WGC Mexico Championship tips, best odds and target markets and shortlists feature by email. Puerto Rico tips will only be in the members email aswell

Hideki Matsuyama 20/1 EW, and FRL is the standout player in terms of looking most likely to peak current form wise. He is showing #progressive t45, t16, t5 finishes having finished 2019 on fire. He rallied on the weekend in both Phoenix and at Riviera. Hideki excels in both of my key stats departments this week (Off the tee and approach proximity) and knows the Chapultepec track, with a couple of top 25 finishes under his belt there.

Tip 2: members email only
Tip 3: members email only

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Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2, you can Buy me a beer here and be auto added to members tips mailing list. Very much optional but appreciated. Cheers lads.

Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

Best for Golf Betting

  • PGA Tour Official (stats)

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  • OWGR.com (rankings and form)

  • Nicspicks Golf Betting Tips


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