Golf Betting: WGC Mexico Championship Tips



Experience will be key as the WGC Mexico Championship hits Golf Club De Chapultepec



tags: WGC Mexico Championship, Golf betting tips, WGC Mexico Championship tips, WGC Mexico Championship betting tips

Distance and spin control will play a big part at high altitude for the WGC Mexico championship in Chapultepec

WGC Mexico Championship target player profile:

Players experienced at the Chapultepec venue, with a tidy short game (experience chipping on Kikuyu) tick the box. Strong records at tracks like Montreaux, Crans and others at high altitude may be a pointer. Accuracy over power.

The course - golf de Club Chapultepec Par 71, 7345

Key features: Old school parklands style track playing 10% shorter than it's length at altitude in Mexico. Deep treeline and very tight from the tips. Back to front sloping, spinny, double tiered greens. Sticky Kikuyu around greens

Premium on: Accuracy, distance and spin control from approach - must leave ball underneath hole but carry to top tier and control spin

Chicken nuggets: for the Mexico Championship

All types of games can win here. Thomas and Rory used driver in 2019 and smashed it off the tee. Caveat is you must hit it very straight or suffer big numbers. Lots of maths involved in approach shots. Birdies and bogeys (or worse) a plenty

WGC Mexico Championship Rankings
(est. win odds to 100% fair book)
1. Rory Mcilroy 7/1
2. Dustin Johnson 7/1
3. Justin Thomas 10/1
4. Jon Rahm 12/1
5. Xander Schauffele 14/1
6. Hideki Matsuyama 16/1
7. Adam Scott 20/1
8. Tommy Fleetwood 20/1
9. Paul Casey 25/1
10. Webb Simpson 25/1...

WGC Mexico Championship tips:

WGC Mexico Championship Featured Tip : (scroll down)

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Hideki Matsuyama 20/1 EW, and FRL is the standout player in terms of looking most likely to peak current form wise. He is showing #progressive t45, t16, t5 finishes having finished 2019 on fire. He rallied on the weekend in both Phoenix and at Riviera. Hideki excels in both of my key stats departments this week (Off the tee and approach proximity) and knows the Chapultepec track, with a couple of top 25 finishes under his belt there.

Tip 2: members email only
Tip 3: members email only

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

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What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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