Golf Betting: Genesis Invitational tips - Advantage big hitting ball strikers

It's known as a ball strikers Paradise and those with length and solid ball striking ability always come to the fore at Riviera for the Genesis Invitational

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The longer hitters, especially with the iron flight, have the advantage around Riviera country club. Multiple times more so when it plays soft, basically eliminating the shorter guys chances of winning the Genesis (see 2019 Genesis leaderboard)

2020 Genesis Invitational Tips Guide

Genesis Invitational target player proflie:

Long off the tee and with the mid irons, with the ability to shape it both ways (predominantly with a fade), is the concoction for success at Riviera

The course - Riviera CC, 7,322 yards, par 71

Key features: Pretty small greens, usually some of the hardest to find on the PGA Tour season. Kikuyu strain of grass along fairways and around greens (sticky). Augusta like aesthetics. Tall trees and some pine straw and you often get away with spraying it if lucky. Deep greenside bunkers

Premium on: must take advantage of the easy par 5s at the Genesis Invitational. Finding the right side of the Riviera fairways/ or even Kikuyu for optimal approach angle into some tucked pin positions on elevated surfaces. Long irons.

Chicken nuggets: for the Genesis Invitational

Each year, the Genesis Invitational proves one of the hardest set of greens to hole out short putts on.

Bubba Watson, amongst others, deliberately misses some fairways for better approach angles (sometimes plays to other fairways rather than just the rough)

The bombers absolutely dominated again in 2019 at the Genesis Invitational. Conditions were soft in the beginning of the week

Genesis Invitational Key Metric leaders

Top ball strikers so far in 2020

Genesis Invitational Rankings
(est. win odds to 100% fair book)

Genesis invitational tips:

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Featured Tip : Marc Leishman 50/1 ew, FRL ew, Opened 33s-50s this week, all prices bigger than my estimated 25/1 (and that's with no margin built in). IMO one of the most underrated golfers of all time and he comes here off the back of a world class showing where he beat up a grade A field on a beast of a track, yet is still somewhat unnoticed in the odds. This week I'm following a theme of big hitting faders of the golf ball - ideal profile for Riviera. I've noted Leishman was smashing the par 5s here in recent years, and he owns a couple of top 5 finishes at Riviera in last 4.

Tip 2: Collin Morikawa 60/1 EW, FRL ew
Tip 3: members email only
Tip 4: members email only
Tip 5: Members email only

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*The members emails provide exclusive extra insights and advice on the week's main golf tournaments for betting. They include my shortlists of golfers fancied for various markets. The email consultancy service doesn't take a lot to join and it's well worthwhile. Already thrown a few big priced winners in 2020, aswell as a strong staking plan, resulting in maximising of returns.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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