South African Open tips: Louis to defend in the 2020 European Tour Golf opener

Louis Oosthuizen blitzed the field en route to winning his home South African Open in 2019

See below the tips for South African Open promos

South African Open target player profile:

A player with a solid all around game who isn't afraid of attacking pins and going low. Birdies are the brief.

The course: Randpark GC (Bushwillow and firethorn courses) par 71, 7115 and 7506 yards respectively

Key features: Old Parklands treelined tracks with numerous water hazards. Rough wasn't too punishing in 2019. Deep greenside bunkering.

Premium On: Total birdies, strokes gained approach

Total Birdies leaders (2019, in field):
DETRY, Thomas
LEE, Min Woo
HANSEN, Joachim B.

South African Open top 10 vs the field Rankings
(est. win odds to 100% fair book)

1. Louis OOsthuizen 10/1
2. Eric Van Rooyen 16/1
3. Brandon Stone 16/1
4. Richard Sterne 22/1
5. Branden Grace 22/1
6. Tom Detry 22/1
7. George Coetzee 25/1
8. Zander Lombard 25/1
9. Eddie Pepperell 25/1
10. Christian Bezuidenhout 28/1.....

Rankings and tips to be posted Tuesdays

South African Open tips:

Join the members mailing list for all South African Open tips, best odds and target markets by email. Scroll underneath tips section for this week's three long odds outsiders to follow...

Featured Tip I've just about forgiven Brandon Stone after his Portugal Open collapse and just aswell as for me this market is very exploitable. On Home soil and on these tracks I think Stone should be one of the much shorter prices rather than the likes of an (injured) Charl or Shaun Norris that is currently living it up on the Japan Tour. Even Branden Grace. Stone is a total birdie machine, excelling with the big stick when on form. We've seen this when winning the SA Open, and he blitzed the field at the Alfred Dunhill. He hit a final round 60 to win the Scottish Open at Gullane

Tip 2: Richard Sterne 50/1 ew
Tip 3: members email only
Tip 4: members email only

If you are betting each way on the golf this season, Betfair Sportsbook are going each way 1/5th 8 places on the South African Open and most events. They are also running a great promotion new players can use on the golf ...find out more

South African Open three to trade... will be Sam Horsfield 70.00, Dean Burmester 120.0 and JC Ritchie 400.0. The play is backing them on Betfair with the hope to trade them in play later in the tournament if going well. See my or Betfair how to: trading guides (previous links) if you need to know more about backing to lay selections and trading golf. Click image below to see the South african Open Betfair market (desktop)

View South African Open Market >> See: How to guide: golf trading

tags: South African Open tips, golf betting tips, South african Open
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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