Golf Betting: American Express Tips - Long Road Ahead

Adam Long was indeed a long odds rookie when he gunned down the likes of Phil Mickelson on the Stadium course at PGA West last season

Phil will be dropping some bombs on PGA West. Scroll down under the tips for golf betting promotions

Phil Mickelson gets his season going and will take over hosting duties at the shootout that is PGA West this week

Click here for my American Express 2021 preview

The American Express Tips Guide

American Express target player proflie:

It's simple, fire at the pins and smoke up that putter. Arguably the easiest set up on tour at the PGA West Stadium, NP and La Quinta courses. Some of the purest greens on the schedule here. Risk/Reward theme.

The courses....

TPC Stadium Course at PGA West, 7,113 yards, par 72.
Nicklaus tournament: par 72, 7,159 yards
La quinta: par 72, 7060 yards

Key features: Pure, straight greens. Easy pin positions. Risk/reward theme with water / sandy area trouble, but landing areas generally open. Sparse rough. Island green 17th on Pete Dye stadium course, similar to Sawgrass. Deepest bunker / sandy area ever on 16th on Stadium.

Premium on: Total birdies, Putting from 5-15 and 10-25 feet, aggressive approach proximity

Chicken nuggets:

Adam Hadwin shot 59 at La Quinta in 2017.

Patrick Reed holds the 72 hole tournament record with a score total of 260. Pleased to say Nicspicks followers benefited after I tipped him at a whopping 140/1 pre tournament, giving rise to the hashtag: #GetGreedyWithReedy

Key Metric Leaders - Total Birdies 2019

The American Express top 10 vs the field Rankings
(est. win odds to 100% fair book)
1. Sungjae Im 14/1
2. Rickie Fowler 14/1
3. Mailing list tip 20/1
4. Phil Mickelson 22/1
5. Tony Finau 22/1
6. Paul Casey 22/1
7. Mailing list tip 25/1
8. Kevin Kisner 28/1
9. Francesco Molinari 28/1
10. Benny An 30/1

American Express Rankings and tips to be posted Tuesday

American Express Championship tips:

American Express Championship Featured Tip

Phil Mickelson 40/1 EW, FRL - is tournament host this week but I'd expect that to help rather than hinder the American enigma. I'm most interested in Phil's tactics here last season where he said he wanted to bomb it everywhere, get as close to the green as possible and go from there. The reason being he's scheduling events where landing areas are forgiving and tracks with lesser rough. It worked last year and when he missed it was easy for him to get up and down I noted when watching. Phil is still no 1. in strokes gained: ability, in this field and around a track like this one. Mick was 8th in approaches from 125-150 yards in 2019.

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Tip 2: Sungjae IM 18/1 EW, FRL
Tip 3: members email only
Tip 4: members email only

If you are betting each way on the golf this season, Betfair go EW 1/5th 7 and 8 places on most full field golf events throughout the year. Also running a great promotion that new golf players can use too ...find out more

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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