Farmers Insurance Open Tips And Preview - Bombers To The Fore

The big hitters are playing a tournament within a tournament at the Farmers Insurance Open


See under tips for Farmers Insurance Open promos

The big boys will be out in force at Torrey Pines North and South for the Farmers Insurance Open. This is the week I say really gets the PGA tour Golf season started

New: Click here for Farmers Insurance Open 2021 Tips Guide

Farmers Insurance Open target proflie:

Bombers. Bombers. Bombers. Total driving (long and straight) a big advantage but ultimately the further out from the tips, the better. Then, a great short game gets it done on and around pretty large fiery Poa (south) surfaces. The cream always rises to the top.

The courses (SC yardage pre renovations)

Torrey Pines NC: par 72 7258 yds, BG greens
Torrey Pines SC: par 72 7,698 yds, PA greens

Key features: Long, hard to hit fairways. Thick rough along fairways and around greens. Coastal vistas. Elevated pretty large (6,000 sqft) Poa greens, tiered, (South course) that are hard to get up and down on, and run back towards centre

Premium on: Strokes gained off the tee (SG:OTT), high ball flight from approaches, bogey avoidance, par 5 performance, strong scrambling skills, lag putting

Chicken nuggets:

Torrey South has seen some changes ahead of the 2021 US Open to be held here (Tees, bunkering and around the greens)

The 2019 Farmers Insurance finally put to bed the irritating narrative of the eventual winner having an advantage if playing the South course first. Justin Rose began his tournament on the North course (and blitzed the field), while the previous 8 editions RANDOMLY saw the winner from the opposite draw

Xander Schauffele home game. Pat Perez's dad is an announcer here. Tiger woods. Joaquin Niemann won 2 junior events at Torrey Pines.

Farmers Insurance Open Key Metric leaders

SG:OTT 2019

Torrey Pines course specialists: Brandt Snedeker, Tiger woods, Charles Howell, JB Holmes, Joaquin Niemann, Jon Rahm, Jason Day, Scott Brown (!!??!)

Farmers Insurance Open Rankings
(est. win odds to 100% fair book)
1. Jon Rahm 8/1
2. Rory Mcilroy 10/1
3. Justin Rose 14/1
4. Xander Schauffele 20/1
5. Tiger Woods 20/1
6. Hideki Matsuyama 22/1
7. Tony Finau 25/1
8. Gary Woodland 28/1
9. Patrick Reed 28/1
10. Mailing list pick 33/1....

Farmers Insurance Open Rankings & tips posted Tuesday

Farmers Insurance Open tips:

Farmers Insurance Open Featured Tip

Joaquin Niemann 50/1 is the man I've had pegged for the Farmers Insurance Open 2020. It was only the Junior World Championship he won back to back here at Torrey but South course winning experience will stand him in good stead. 1 of golf's upcoming stars, Niemann won his maiden PGA Tour title at Greenbrier at the end of last year. He started 2020 with a 5th place on a big course at Kapalua. He owns a flat ball flight off the tee and ranked 35th in 2019 in strokes gained: OTT which I like for Torrey Pines, especially if it blows...

Join the Nicspicks mailing list >> for all Farmers Insurance Open tips, best odds and target markets by email. Last week we had Sepp Straka top euro 33/1 and a full place for Scottie... scheffler.

Tip 2: Cameron Champ 80/1
Tip 3: members email only
Tip 4: members email only

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tags: Farmers Insurance Open, Golf betting tips, Farmers Insurance open tips, Farmers Insurance Open betting tips

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Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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