Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship tips guide - Strong field announced

A strong field will assemble at Abu Dhabi golf club in 2020


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Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship profile: 

Click here for my Abu Dhabi Championship 2021 preview

Strong total driving and greens in regulation generally gets it done at Abu Dhabi GC. Conditions can change from year to year so pay close attention to course playability closer the off

The course: Abu Dhabi GC, par 72 7,583 yds

Key features: Pristine fairways. Generally thick rough tee to green. Sandy / bush areas for the errant. Lots of water hazards for the sprayers. Mixture of tight lies (front) / thick fibre or deep bunkering around the greens.

Premium On: Strokes gained: tee to green. Long and straight with the driver and control of flight with the irons is the concoction for success at Abu Dhabi GC

Chicken nuggets: Martin Kaymer struggled dramatically chipping off the tight lies in front of the greens when collapsing in the final round in 2015. Martin and Andy Sullivan are two notables to struggle with the bushes/shrubs in the sandy areas and or the water when contending here

Lots of birdies available but lots of big numbers await for stray shots....

Lucas Bjerregaard hit 8 birds in a row here 1 year but missed cut due to 3 double bogeys+

Key Metric leaders
Strokes gained: tee to green 2019 ET

Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship top 10 vs the field Rankings
(est. win odds to 100% fair book)

1. Louis Oosthuizen 12/1
2. Tommy Fleetwood 14/1
3. Brooks Koepka 14/1
4. Patrick Cantlay 18/1
5. Shane Lowry 22/1
6. Bryson DeChambeau 22/1
7. mailing list pick 25/1
8. Branden Grace 25/1
9. Matt Fitzpatrick 28/1
10. Mailing list pick 33/1.....

Rankings and tips to be posted Tuesdays

Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship tips: will appear on Tuesday

Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship Featured Tip

Louis Oosthuizen 16/1 ew, FRL - It's all about strokes gained: tee to green in Abu Dhabi and 4 from the top 10 (see above) in that stat on the ET 2019 are course specialists at Abu Dhabi GC. That doesn't include Louis Oosthuizen (missing from stats) who is arguably the best tee to green player in the field. Louis was unlucky to finish runner up to the Branden Grace train last week in SA where he hit 86.13% greens in regulation, and it's hard to see him not there or there abouts come Sunday in a gaff where he has 3x top 5s in his last 4 starts.

Tips 3, 4 and 5 are available through the Nicspicks members mailing list only.

Tip 2: Andy Sullivan 100/1 ew, FRL
Tip 3: members email only
Tip 4: members email only

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Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


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What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

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Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

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