NICSPICKS GOLF BETTING TIPS

New: Course Fit Manual 2022

Golf Betting: Sony Open Tips Guide - Hot flat stick required at Waialae

It's chalk and cheese as the 2nd leg of the Aloha swing sees the 1st full field event of the season at the Sony Open



Sony Open Tips guide

Click here to see my sony Open 2021 preview

Sony Open target player profile:

Experienced, accurate players, that are strong in trade winds tend to be the prominent theme at Sony Open leaderboards. A hot putter gets the job done here. Go low.

Sony Open course - Waialae - Par 70, 7044 yards

Key features:

Sparse palm treelined bushy track with narrow fairways and spongy bermuda rough. Some Dog-legs. Small bermuda surfaces with mown areas, shallow bunkers or sticky bermuda rough greenside. Strong winds.

Premium on:

Accuracy and positioning off the tee. Putting. Par 4 performance.

Sony Open key metric performance

Driving accuracy leaders at the 2019 Sony Open


Birdie or Better conversion % rate at the 2019 Sony Open


Potential ones to watch at the 2020 Sony Open (if committed to field) are the likes of Rory Sabbitini, Brian Gay and Brian Harman who all returned to form with a bang last year. Of the noobs, Collin Morikawa should be well suited to Waialae too, while Scottie Sheffler would love the Sony Open birdie fest. Players that played throughout the turn of the year in Aus and that played at Kapalua always have the edge at the Sony Open. Strong wind efficiency is a big positive too.

Check back on Tuesday for best free Sony Open tips

Sony Open Rankings top 10 vs the field
(est. win odds to 100%)

1. Justin Thomas 4/1
2. Patrick Reed 10/1
3. Hideki Matsuyama 12/1
4. Collin Morikawa 16/1
5. Joaquin Niemann 16/1
6. Matt Kuchar 20/1
7. Webb Simpson 20/1
8. Kevin Kisner 20/1
9. Abraham Ancer 25/1
10. Cameron Smith 25/1

Sony Open Tips

Join the members mailing list for all Sony Open tips, staking plan and target markets by email. Scroll underneath tips section on tuesday for this week's three long odds outsiders to follow...

Featured tip: Collin Morikawa 20/1 ew debuted at Kapalua last week and finished a creditable 7th given inexperience of the course and the pressure from a lot of family members out there. This is a plus for Morikawa and as mentioned above, he should be well suited to the Waialae test. His best finishes so far are in shoot outs like the John Deers, and the 3M Open, and his win came at the Stableford at Barracuda. He ranks 33rd in par 4 performance and 26th in birdie or better %

Tip 2: Joaquin Niemann 33/1 EW
Tip 3: members email only
Tip 4: members email only

If you are betting each way on the golf, Betfair Sportsbook are going each way 1/5th 8 places on the Sony Open. They are also running a great promotion new players can use on the golf ...find out more

Sony Open 3 to trade

The three to trade is a new feature where I put up some outside fancies on Betfair that i think could come in significantly odds wise in play, giving us the option to trade out for some profit. You can see my how to: trading guide here

This week's three to trade for the sony Open will be Andrew Putnam 80.00, Brian gay 200.0.00 and Zach Johnson 180.0. The play is backing them on Betfair with the hope to trade them in play later in the tournament if going well. See my or Betfair how to: trading guides (previous links) if you need to know more about backing to lay selections and trading golf. Click image below to see the Sony Betfair market (desktop)

View Sony Open Market >>

tags: Sony Open tips, Sony Open preview, Best Sony Open tips

Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Expected strokes gained course fit (xSGF) can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form.

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2, you can Buy me a beer here and be auto added to members tips mailing list. Very much optional but appreciated. Cheers lads.

Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

Best for Golf Betting

  • PGA Tour Official (stats)

  • European Tour (DP World)

  • OWGR.com (rankings and form)

  • Nicspicks Golf Betting Tips


Golf Betting Tips Strategy

  1. Course fit and strokes gained in golf betting
  2. Tips: How to win betting on golf online
  3. Ryder Cup betting tips
  4. Golf Betting Tips Guides


  5. Golf majors: The Masters - Open Championship - US PGA Championship - US Open. Tiger Woods.