Golf Betting: Sentry Tournament of Champions Tips Guide: Big Hitters to the fore at Kapalua

A limited field full of the 2019 PGA Tour winners kicks off the golf betting season at the Plantatation course at Kapalua

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Sentry tournament of champions target player profile:

The Plantation course at Kapalua is one of the longest and widest courses on tour where power players come to the fore. Big elevation changes leave some blind shots into large undulating greens so a tidy short game is also a prerequisite. Xander Schauffele circled his way to a final round -11 in the 2019 Sentry Tournament of champions, and blue numbers will be the brief. Over aggression from approaches is not the way to go at Kapalua

The course

Plantation Course at Kapalua - par 73, 7,518 yards.

Chicken nugget: The course has seen renovations this year but I don't expect it to play much differently. Hole lengths will be altered to compensate for winds.

Key features: undulating terrain with elevation changes. Large undulating greens that need you to work the ball into rather than take out the pins. Trade winds. Very tricky surfaces to putt on from close range. Generous landing areas.

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Strokes gained off the tee. Par breakers. Working the slopes on approaches is an advantage on the Plantation course.

SG:OTT leaders at the tournament of champions 2019

Potential ones to watch...

John Rahm, Rory McIlroy (NR), Cameron Champ

Top 10 Rankings (Fair book to 100% win probability)
1. John Rahm 6/1
2. Justin Thomas 6/1
3. Xander Schauffele 10/1
4. Dustin Johnson 12/1
5. Gary Woodland 12/1
6. Patrick Reed 12/1
7. Patrick Cantlay 14/1
8. Rickie Fowler 16/1
9. Paul Casey 18/1
10. Cameron Champ 20/1

Best Sentry Tournament of champions tips will be available on the blog homepage or in the golf betting tips previews on Tuesday

Featured tip: Gary woodland 22/1 ew, FRL. (update: now BP 18s after Brooks nr) Woody is quite simply overpriced in a lot of fields of this ilk. He was very unfortunate not to win at the tournament of champions last year having being overhauled by a final day 62 from Xander Schauffele, despite shooting -5 himself to lose by one. He has all the attributes needed for Kapalua being one of the longest on tour from the tips and he's renowned as one of the best ball strikers who can easily cope with the prevailing winds.

Tip 2: Cameron champ 50/1 ew, FRL

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

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