Golf Betting: Australian PGA Championship Tips - Smith going for three-peat

Adam Scott leads the Australian charge at the PGA, but it's Cameron smith going for 3 in a row at Royal Pines



Australian PGA Championship tips guide

Australian PGA Championship target player profile:

We are looking for a player with strong "total driving" ability, who is efficient in the wind, and who owns a good touch on and around the greens at Royal Pines

The course: Royal Pines Resort, Queensland, par 72, 7,364 yards

Key features:

Large undulating elevated greens with run offs. Pure surfaces. Treelined track but you can get a shot if loose. Lots of water trouble from the tips and approaches. Strong par 3s. Deep greenside bunkering. Scorable par 5s.

Premium on:

Total driving, strokes gained around the green.

Australian PGA Championship top 10 vs the field rankings
(estimated win odds to 100% fair book)

1. Adam Scott 8/1
2. Cameron Smith 10/1
3. Cameron champ 16/1
4. Ryan Fox 20/1
5. Jason Scrivener 20/1
6. Min Woo Lee 25/1
7. Lucas Herbert 25/1
8. Calum Hill 28/1
9. Brad Kennedy 30/1
10. Wade Ormsby 33/1


Australian PGA Championship Key metric leaders

Strokes gained around the green leaders European Tour 2018


Oddschecker market movers


Australian PGA Championship tips

Keep scrolling down for my big odds outsider fancies...

Featured tip: Min woo Lee 35/1 ew. The home man was the longest hitter on the European tour this season, interestingly enough just ahead of compatriot Ryan Fox who is also fancied at this week's Australian PGA championship. Royal Pines looks to be a track Min Woo could do some damage on with his long hitting and his birdie making ability (11th). The Aussie is a bit hit or miss at the moment with a t6 and t3 finish sandwiched between a MC and a t63 and looks decent value in present company. MWL sits 4th in SG:ATG.

Australian PGA Championship Tip 2: Lucas Herbert 40/1 ew
Australian PGA Championship Tip 3: Ryan Fox 28/1 ew
Australian PGA Championship Tip 4: Dimi Papadatos 90/1 ew

Will be backing all 4 in Australian PGA Championship 1st round leader ew market too and it's profit if 1 just places at best prices

Betfair Offer: Betfair Sportsbook go each way 1/5th 7 places on the australian PGA Championship. New players can get up to £100 in free bets on signup ...find out more

Australian PGA Championship 3 to trade

The 3 to trade features big priced rank outsiders on Betfair Exchange who may trade quite a bit lower in play. I generally look to lay back if possible between rounds 2 and 3 (19-54 holes) if any player is going well. Have a look at my how to guide on trading golf if you need to know more about the concept. The current market is below..

This week's Betfair Three to trade are: Jake McLeod, Travis Smyth and Nicolai Hojgaard and when the market settles we should see a 3 fig average on those.

Australian PGA championship Betfair market (click image to view)


Tags: Australian PGA Championship tips, golf betting tips, Australian PGA Championship betting preview

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Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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