Round 3 trade for the Turkish Airlines Open

I'm looking at the set up of the Turkish Airlines Open market after 36 holes and there looks to be some serious scope for profit with it being so condensed. Justin Rose is taking up a big portion of the book which lends itself for some nice back to lay trades on the bigger prices. I'm mainly targeting the -10s, but also Ross fisher on -11 who is the absolute standout in terms of potential price movement. I'm adding the following players and suggesting a plan of backing all 4 to level stakes: (image points to Betfair market on desktop only)....

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Now the danger in this type of trade is that 1 player - who is not in our quartet - shoots the lights out and trades low odds-on after 54 holes but that won't happen often. There's a decent chance one of ours goes quite low and is complimented by 1 other, meaning a nice trade. If just one shoots a decent round we will cover circa most of our total liability the vast majority of the time...Find out more.

You can also see my trading strategy article. The exchange landing page has some very good "How to" guides.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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Golf Betting Tips Strategy

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