Inplay trade at the Mayo classic

This week's round 2-3 trade for the Mayakoba Classic involves backing 4 guys from the early wave on an average score of -6:

Zach Johnson 19.00 -7
Russell Henley 44.00 -5
Chez Reavie 32.00 -5
Mark Hubbard 26.00 -7

Click through the images to the Betfair exchange if you're trying this trade for yourself. For some more info on how it works, see my Betfair trading strategy article on backing to lay players.

Scoring average from the early starters in round 1 was half a shot better than the late and wind conditions are expected to be similar on saturday, with wind getting up as the day goes on. As you can see, I've backed the quartet to level stakes with the plan / hope to trade out between 36-54 holes depending on how much play we see on Saturday

You can navigate straight to the Mayakoba winners market here (on desktop - mobile points to menu)

Having watched the tournament develop yesterday, conditions look great for low scoring but there's still some big punishment for errant drives with more than 1 shot often going for a stray ball. The players above largely fit the profile of point to point golfers who make a lot of birdies. ZJ and Chez excel with the wedges and short irons into these soft greens and Henley can go super low when that putter hots up. He also has a super high ball flight which is suited to taking these pins out this week.

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Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022

My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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