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Portugal Masters Tips, Rankings and Key Info

Portugal Masters top 10 vs the field rankings
(Est. fair odds to 100%)
1. Matt Wallace 14/1
2. Lucas Bjerregaard 18/1
3. Eddie Pepperell 18/1
4. Martin Kaymer 20/1
5. Jordan Smith 20/1
6. Tom Lewis 25/1
7. Ryan Fox 25/1
8. Adri Arnaus 25/1
9. Ross Fisher 28/1
10. Callum Shinkwin 28/1.......


Betfair Sportsbook are paying 1/5th odds EW 8 places on the Portugal Masters
(click link)

The course: Dom Pedro Victoria resort course, par 71, yards 7191

Target player profile: Aggressive Bomber who makes a lot of birdies

Key features Resort style course: Large undulating greens. Exposed. Water Hazards. Rough will be up (Bermuda) more than previous editions.

Chicken nuggets: The Oceanico Resort course has seen significant changes since last season with a much tougher test possibly in store. Changes may not affect play this season as much as in seasons ahead but trees have been added to try and lessen the bomber advantage on the Victoria track. Bermuda rough along fairways and around greens should see a stiffer test and they are looking to make conditions a little faster and firmer but given the time of year that remains to be seen.

Premium on: Bombers have a huge advantage around this track. An advantage on par with the biggest hitters on the PGA Tour at Doral, in that they can carry doglegs and trouble / hazards, and be left with short irons into large undulating greens, (despite changes, including new trees) implemented for the 2019 Portugal Masters edition). Proximity to the hole. Par breakers.

Course correlation: Albatross Golf Resort (exact match), Blue Monster at Doral

Key metrics leaders (those in field)

Strokes gained off the tee
Callum Shinkwin
Adri Arnaus
Min Woo Lee
Matthew Southgate
Guido Migliozzi
Joel Girrbach
Jordan Smith

Driving distance
Min Woo Lee
Ryan fox
Dean Burmester
Callum shinkwin
Tapio Pulkannen

Total Birdies
Sam Horsfield
Min woo Lee
Matt Wallace
Martin Kaymer
George Coetzee

Course specialists: Tom Lewis, Lucas Bjerregaard, Alex Levy

Portugal Masters tips

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The top Back to lay trade is Min Woo Lee at 100.00. As you can see he has the perfect profile for the Dom Pedro course featuring at the top of most of the key attributes. Lee is a par breaker machine who hits it a mile, topping the driving distance stats regularly. He comes here off the back of a 6th place last time out. He also has an 8am early tee time and at 80/1 is a decent first round leader ew option

Ryan Fox 33/1 ew is possibly Min woo Lee's biggest rival in the driving distance department, and he has progressed nicely into form with two top 20s in his last two. Fox can go super low. I recall he shot in the 50s a few years ago - I think it was in practice, or on the NZ Tour. He hit 29 for the lowest back 9 in Open History this season enroute to a t16. Fox won the super 6 earlier this year and this is a great event for him to challenge strongly again. He carded a top 30 in Portugal in 2018, firing a 3rd round 64.

Portugal Masters Market - Trading strategy

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Tags: Portugal Masters Tips, Golf betting tips



Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

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Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

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Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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