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In-Play: Italian Open R3 / Houston R4 golf trading


Update: The Italian Open trade (scroll down below) went OK with Kitayama shooting low. The others pretty much shot themselves out of it but we still returned circa 100% profit. I posted an updated screenshot on my Twitter.

I have a potential day 4 dutch / trade for the Houston Open. Members of the Nicspicks premium mailing list have a decent 50/1 antepost chance of a winner with outright ew selections Beau Hossler and Cameron Tringale out in the penultimate pairing at -9. I make it around 30% likely that 1 of those two comes through but in case they don't.....

The optional #backtolay trade on Betfair involves dutching Austin cook 23.00, Sepp Straka 26.00, Talor Gooch 28.00 and Brandon Wu 32.00. For me this is where the value lies and we get a combined price of around 11/2 on the 4 players...

(screenshot points directly to Houston market on desktop only)

The options here are to let the value play ride and look to 1 of the 4 guys to come through, or you can look to trade should one of them reach around the evens mark later, which would guarantee a nice profit

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Italian Open R3 trade

I was playing around with some small bets at big prices pre day 2 of the Italian Open golf, and the current Betfair trading book looks like this after doing the same for pre day 3 trading. Given the presence of Matt Fitzpatrick - who is very much underpriced - and also Justin Rose in the rear-view mirror, there is some great value and trading potential on good players that can shoot low on the -6 and -7 mark. All others are small negatives except Jordan Smith


In short, these guys are close enough to make a big day 3 move, and potential big price jumps. We could see a whole different look to the market at the end of play on Saturday. The theory around this strategy is just skimming some value from the prices while backing enough players to reduce variance. At least 1 of those guys I have onside will usually go low, meaning it's at least money back. Should the top 2 stumble and a couple of my guys take over, that's where the profits come in. That Often happens in this type of scenario and scoring situation, and I love to oppose the last grouping on Saturday.

New players can get a Free £20 matched bet here which can be used on the Italian Open markets. You can learn more about the concept of trading here

Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


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Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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