HSBC Champions in-play trade

It's been a good start to the WGC HSBC Champions with Victor Perez (-7) bagging a 1st round leader place for the mailing list at 90/1. Even better for Twitter followers with HaoTong Li - a late bet I put up there after further analysis - bagging the FRL (1st round lead) at 60/1 on -8.

The HSBC Champions Betfair market is now setting up quite nicely and I have what I feel is a good plus EV round 2/3 trade set up. If we use a dutching calculator we get the stakes (over on the right of image) to place at odds of Fitz- 17.00, IM- 15.5, Perez- 32.00 and Schwab- 75.00 (enlarge image by widening with fingers on mobile, or click to go to BF)


As you see, we get combined fixed odds of 5/1 on the 4 players. The plan though is to back to lay trade in running between 36 and 54 holes if 1 or more of the 4 players goes well. It's up to your own type of risk mindset where you want to trade. You can cover some liability after round 2 if you wish, or trade out fully, or let run.

The key is that if just one of the 4 goes well, we will have the option to get circa our total £100 (or whatever you stake) outlay back, and thus reduce the potential variance.
Sign up to Betfair here (aff link) for a free £20 matched bet if you are a new player and fancy trying a trade on the exchange
Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.


Buy my Golf Betting Book £15.99 or 1/2 price on Kindle

<b>Buy my Golf Betting Book</b> £15.99 or 1/2 price on Kindle
Angles and Edges: a journey through the evolution of golf betting and the markets

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Best for Golf Betting



Golf Betting Tips Strategy

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