In-play Diary: Safeway Open

Update: Just some thoughts going into the final day at the Dunhill Links and the Safeway as the leaders are about to get out at ST. Andrews.

Firstly, Adam Hadwin - 1 of 3 in play trades below post r1 - now trades at 11.00 on Betfair in the Safeway Open. I exited fully for around a 40-50% liability after what wasn't a great round 2 for me. The big boys are coming to the front and Thomas at 7.60 and Collin Morikawa at 13.50 look decent plays. We have Chez Reavie in the running as a pre event ew selection.

You can see an interesting looking Dunhill Links market here (click link) where Tony Finau trades at 7.00 and Lagergren at 13.00. With the possibility of Southgate and Perez at the front coming unstuck, this is where the value lies for me. Lagergren had the event history trend in his favour leading into this event, while big Tony is rumoured to have shot 58 in practice at ST. Andrews earlier in the week.

You can get 7/2 by dutching Finau and Lagergren


I'm going to try and get an in-play back-to-lay trading column going throughout the rest of the season. An angle I've been experimenting with for a while and one that looks to have a sustainable edge is backing longer odds guys near the front of the market after day 1 and looking to lay before final day play.

The players I'm targeting this week at the Safeway Open are:

Corey Conners 34.00 on the exchange
Adam Hadwin 40.00
Adam Long 44.00

If we use a dutching calculator, we can set it up for a combined fixed odds play at around 12/1. To do this you would place the following on each (to an example £100 stake):
Hadwin - £32.41
Conners - £38.13
Long - £29.46

If you're new to Betfair backing/laying and fancy giving this or future advised trades a try, new customers can get a Free £20 matched bet through this link (aff)

To learn more about how to trade on Betfair, you can read my strategy
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Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

Golf Player Profiles

Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022

My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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  6. Golf majors: The Masters 2022 preview and picks - Open Championship - US PGA Championship - US Open. Tiger Woods.