In-play Diary: Safeway Open

Update: Just some thoughts going into the final day at the Dunhill Links and the Safeway as the leaders are about to get out at ST. Andrews.

Firstly, Adam Hadwin - 1 of 3 in play trades below post r1 - now trades at 11.00 on Betfair in the Safeway Open. I exited fully for around a 40-50% liability after what wasn't a great round 2 for me. The big boys are coming to the front and Thomas at 7.60 and Collin Morikawa at 13.50 look decent plays. We have Chez Reavie in the running as a pre event ew selection.

You can see an interesting looking Dunhill Links market here (click link) where Tony Finau trades at 7.00 and Lagergren at 13.00. With the possibility of Southgate and Perez at the front coming unstuck, this is where the value lies for me. Lagergren had the event history trend in his favour leading into this event, while big Tony is rumoured to have shot 58 in practice at ST. Andrews earlier in the week.

You can get 7/2 by dutching Finau and Lagergren

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I'm going to try and get an in-play back-to-lay trading column going throughout the rest of the season. An angle I've been experimenting with for a while and one that looks to have a sustainable edge is backing longer odds guys near the front of the market after day 1 and looking to lay before final day play.

The players I'm targeting this week at the Safeway Open are:

Corey Conners 34.00 on the exchange
Adam Hadwin 40.00
Adam Long 44.00

If we use a dutching calculator, we can set it up for a combined fixed odds play at around 12/1. To do this you would place the following on each (to an example £100 stake):
Hadwin - £32.41
Conners - £38.13
Long - £29.46

If you're new to Betfair backing/laying and fancy giving this or future advised trades a try, new customers can get a Free £20 matched bet through this link (aff)

To learn more about how to trade on Betfair, you can read my strategy
article here

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.


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What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

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To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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