Trading Diary - I done a blog (pilfered phrase)

So here's what I've been doing this week (apart from lying on my backside and becoming more and more deeply depressed with pub poker). First of all, as alluded to on Twitter, all of the up and coming Aus talent seemed to be out for the Perth International, less maybe Ryan Ruffels and Nathan Holman. Jarryd Felton - who actually grabbed a win off my radar at the NSW PGA Championship - got a start, as did Lucas Herbert....

Anyway I did my conkers backing them all in the sub markets. Todd Sinnott got me a few quid back in the FRL and could save my bacon if he bags a top 10 (currently T8 with 20 or so other guys!). Lucas and Jarryd were actually going well and I had a decent potential return on the former for top 20 at silly odds. He was actually in the top 20 after 5 holes of R2 but they both MC'd.

Anyway we have a bit of a monopoly up top there with Uihlein, Gibson and Scrivener all in the top 5. The other 2 - Louis and Rumford - were backed 3 times between them in last few weeks #prematuretipulation (again a pilfered phrase)

On to the early round #backtolay trading and I put up a nice 36 hole dutch / trade in Aus on Twitter of Bjerregaard, Uihlein and Morrison. I couldn't play it myself as I can't use the Aus wallet right now so I'm all about the EW. Anyway see below for how it looked after (to example £500 outlay) the state of play in R1 with 2 guys bombing and 1 guy leading. I suggested zeroing the book by covering all outlay as Uihlein was trading at 6.40.

Currently Uihlein is trading around the same price post round 2 so you can equalise for around 100% ROI on the Perth International

On to Honda and I backed all my double figure selections (all 2 of them) but added Gmac, J-Walker, and serge after big drifts on the exchange. I also put some insurance which turned out not to be insurance on Scott and Grace.

Below is the antepost book and the state of play after R1 where I could have exited for almost 100% profit if I fancied. As alluded to on Twitter I didn't want to deviate from the set strategy, despite the unpredictabilty at Honda with the wind, and water everywhere. Hopefully it goes well (currently Jimmy and Garcia are tied for the lead at -5 with Fowler but Walker is in trouble at #10

Update: Here's the equalised Honda Classic book after 36 holes despite Lowry's capitulation (still have much bigger greens on Lowry, McDowell and Palmer should 1 go mad over the weekend)

The Scott "Insurance" did afterall turn out to be nice insurance and keeping to the set strategy got me a 200% ROI rather than a double up.
Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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