Trading Diary week 3 - Nicolas pulls a Fasth One

Yes, so I mentioned on the mailing list Nicolas Fasth was a very long odds outsider to watch in the sub markets. He stood -5 with 2 to play (one a par 5) - a score which would have seen him get a share of the first round leader places while -6 would have seen a full place payout.......

He failed to birdie the par 5 and bogeyed his last to fall away at 250/300/1. Now, the stakes were only a tenner EW but it would have been nice. But I'm already over it - Given I'm one of the most negative people you'll ever meet, anything less than a bogey on the last for my guys in contention is a bonus.

I've now recouped 80% of my stake trading back Kaymer. I decided I don't like the way the leaderboard is looking and his late tee time so as mentioned on the Twitter yesterday, I placed some of that quan on little Matt Fitz who likes fairways (very penal rough here this week) and he didn't have a bogey yesterday. Matt has just posted -1 for a -5 total as I write so there will be somewhere around 50% loss on that too.

Andy Sullivan however has done the business early in round 2 with another 67 to lead at -10 currently. His price at the end of the day will be dependent on the big names coming out in the afternoon. Hopefully the wind will get up and none of them will go low and I can equalise my book for a nice green on Sully

Career Builder challenge

I could slap Zach Johnson with a wet fish right now. I really did feel I was having an early round trade to nothing with this one so I added a ton to my Career Builder Challenge book on the Open champion. He bombed. Maybe he'll shoot -10 in R2 and I can get my stake back. Currently I have a load of players and darts in or around the -3/4 position which is 4 shots back. Now, I havn't yet seen the scoring averages but it seems the Stadium Course played the toughest and a lot of mine played that yesterday. Indeed it looks like only 4 from the SC broke the top 30 yesterday.

I mentioned I'd added a lot of big priced darts to the book as I always like to do here, and I wasn't lying, it's not in my nature:

I would so like Martin Piller to break the top 20 this week. I mentioned he was priced between 5s and 28s for a top 20 across the books so in other words most were pretty clueless there on his chances. Harold Varner III, Finau and Lingmerth are the main trades so hopefully 1 or 2 of them can go low later to give me a decent trading position after round 2. Given the course rotation, I may let a decent bit ride if thigs go well today.

Back to Abu dhabi now and a Paratore top 20 would be nice so a low 1 this afternoon is needed. Morrison will start level while Bjerregaard, in hindsight regardless of score, doesn't look a great selection and is in danger of a MC.

Chat sh!t, get banged

Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

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Angles and Edges: a journey through the evolution of golf betting and the markets

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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