NICSPICKS GOLF BETTING TIPS

New: Course Fit Manual 2022

Trading Diary week 3 - Nicolas pulls a Fasth One

Yes, so I mentioned on the mailing list Nicolas Fasth was a very long odds outsider to watch in the sub markets. He stood -5 with 2 to play (one a par 5) - a score which would have seen him get a share of the first round leader places while -6 would have seen a full place payout.......

He failed to birdie the par 5 and bogeyed his last to fall away at 250/300/1. Now, the stakes were only a tenner EW but it would have been nice. But I'm already over it - Given I'm one of the most negative people you'll ever meet, anything less than a bogey on the last for my guys in contention is a bonus.

I've now recouped 80% of my stake trading back Kaymer. I decided I don't like the way the leaderboard is looking and his late tee time so as mentioned on the Twitter yesterday, I placed some of that quan on little Matt Fitz who likes fairways (very penal rough here this week) and he didn't have a bogey yesterday. Matt has just posted -1 for a -5 total as I write so there will be somewhere around 50% loss on that too.

Andy Sullivan however has done the business early in round 2 with another 67 to lead at -10 currently. His price at the end of the day will be dependent on the big names coming out in the afternoon. Hopefully the wind will get up and none of them will go low and I can equalise my book for a nice green on Sully

Career Builder challenge

I could slap Zach Johnson with a wet fish right now. I really did feel I was having an early round trade to nothing with this one so I added a ton to my Career Builder Challenge book on the Open champion. He bombed. Maybe he'll shoot -10 in R2 and I can get my stake back. Currently I have a load of players and darts in or around the -3/4 position which is 4 shots back. Now, I havn't yet seen the scoring averages but it seems the Stadium Course played the toughest and a lot of mine played that yesterday. Indeed it looks like only 4 from the SC broke the top 30 yesterday.

I mentioned I'd added a lot of big priced darts to the book as I always like to do here, and I wasn't lying, it's not in my nature:


I would so like Martin Piller to break the top 20 this week. I mentioned he was priced between 5s and 28s for a top 20 across the books so in other words most were pretty clueless there on his chances. Harold Varner III, Finau and Lingmerth are the main trades so hopefully 1 or 2 of them can go low later to give me a decent trading position after round 2. Given the course rotation, I may let a decent bit ride if thigs go well today.

Back to Abu dhabi now and a Paratore top 20 would be nice so a low 1 this afternoon is needed. Morrison will start level while Bjerregaard, in hindsight regardless of score, doesn't look a great selection and is in danger of a MC.

Chat sh!t, get banged

Nic

Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Expected strokes gained course fit (xSGF) can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form.

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2, you can Buy me a beer here and be auto added to members tips mailing list. Very much optional but appreciated. Cheers lads.

Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

Best for Golf Betting

  • PGA Tour Official (stats)

  • European Tour (DP World)

  • OWGR.com (rankings and form)

  • Nicspicks Golf Betting Tips


Golf Betting Tips Strategy

  1. Course fit and strokes gained in golf betting
  2. Tips: How to win betting on golf online
  3. Ryder Cup betting tips
  4. Golf Betting Tips Guides


  5. Golf majors: The Masters - Open Championship - US PGA Championship - US Open. Tiger Woods.