Trading Diary - week 2

As mentioned last week, I hope to blog this year about my own personal endeavours in the sports betting and trading world. Posts will be up some time over the weekends (2 or 3 times a month hopefully). The aim is to give a bit of insight into what I actually get up to here on my tobler and it will be, as always with me, a no bullsh** account....

And yes, some will be "aftertimed" as it is a diary and I can't exactly tell all about my exchange trades before they are done - that wouldn't work really would it? Again it is a diary afterall! I will have at least mentioned or flagged most, if not all potential bets across my social mediasphere though so keep an eye out. Beware: Screenshots will be a theme. This is my Twitter handle: @Nicspicks and I'm trying to keep it professional as a new years resolution but not sure how long that will last.

Much of the focus will be on my early round trading and blogging records will help me myself (and Irene) to note where I may be going right or wrong, but as mentioned previously, I have a large enough sample now with these strategies so I'm positive it will prove a fruitful exercise. If it doesn't I'll probably have to go back to fixed odds fulltime for as long as I have enough active accounts (longer than some would lead you to believe!). TBH I often wish I'd just stuck to fixed odds only since 2011, as I'd be relatively rich, but hopefully it will be now a case of 1 step back - 2 steps forward.

Trying to get the trading aspect completely cracked is not greed, I promise, I think that aspect is fairly obviously not what drives me by now. It's more of an OCD instigated battle with myself for satisfaction and I'm never happy taking the easier option. Also, I prefer the word "trader" to "bettor". It's true.

The main reason though is I hate the 4 round stress (I think you event cherry picking horse bettors have it easy!) and have been looking for a way to achieve a long term mucho positive ROI% from trading before the stress of the weekend even kicked in. Back in 2010-12 I basically just dutched a load of picks at silly inflated odds on betfair and waited/hoped 1 of them would hit the odds on arena, and then I'd equalise my books before the inevitable capitulation down the sretch - that's where all these screenshots came from (I thought there were more than 5 in that post). Unless doing a specific 1 round trade or something, I wouldn't even look at my antepost stuff until after 54 holes unless we had a runaway 36 hole leader like Alex Noren, David Toms or Camillo villegas.

*Just realised* I'm actually quite enjoying writing this type of blog as I can vent some frustrations (GRRRRRR), and without losing 20 pompous Twitter followers while doing so.

Anyway back to this week and I introduced a new concept on the mailing list and it is one of top 20 insurance. I promised a screenshot of an example that works out perfectly and it's from an account that noone else on Twitter seems to have (see below). On that note - it's probably the firm I've had least problems with over the years. So there. If I make a withdrawal, I get my money without so much as a question, simple. They don't pull my bank details and pretend they never had them in the first place or anything silly that surely doesn't go on anywhere else!

Basically below I've staked £100 on a Malnati top 10 with £20 at 5s for a top 20. Therefore should he finish in positions 11-20 I recoup my stakes on the place markets. Simple but worthwhile.

Sony Open - Not really sure what went on here as I was playing poker but Kizzire and Wilcox were both well under par at one stage only to both collapse on the back 9. Bowditch and Kizzire though are still well in contention for the top 10. I mentioned I was going to get on Kisner and Kirk for trading purposes and a ton on Kisner has me free rolling now in this market on Betfair after I equalised. Kirk bombed. I've decent green on Bowdo and Kizzire. Click screenshots to enlarge.

Not getting involved in play as I missed the conditions and play yesterday

In Joburg I'm hoping for a strong last 5 or so holes from Sterne so I can at least cover myself in the trading department. Top 10 bets - Paratore looks like he will miss the cut, Daniel Im needs a strong back 9, but it's the longest odds Eric Van Rooyen flying the flag atm. He's currently T7 as I write.
Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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Golf Betting Tips Strategy

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