Farmers Insurance Open Picks: 0.6u EW Marc Leishman

Farmers Insurance Open pick: 0.6u ew Marc Leishman @ 45/1 (Paddypower 1-6)

Current form: 37, 11; Course form: 2, mc, 52, 9, 2

Key stats: 22nd par five scoring; 16th all round ranking (2014)

Fast becoming a player with a reputation for the big events, Leishman was on the radar here last year and hit our trading target early on as he started fast. Leish eventually recorded a runner up spot which adds to two other top 10s here (another 2nd included). After bringing us a nice payout in the FRL Market at the Masters in 2013, Leishman finished T4, and if you look at his recent events, his best finishes have been in the WGCs and majors. 9th at the HSBC, 3rd at Bridgestone and 5th in the Open Championship, the Aussie also finished in the top 10 at the difficult Congressional. Marc's season opener in Hawaii included a second round 62.

Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.


Buy my Golf Betting Book £15.99 or 1/2 price on Kindle

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Angles and Edges: a journey through the evolution of golf betting and the markets

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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Golf Betting Tips Strategy

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