The Masters in play trading guide

I mentioned this morning that there has been a big drift on the exchange due to one reason or another on a lot of players I expect may go well at the Masters and from a trading point of view there is great potential to turn this into a profitable position. Quite a few players' prices will come in rapidly if they get off to a good start. Please note that what we are trying to do here is completely different to backing EW and you can click the link above if you need to know more before reading on.......

Arguably the two standout prices are Brand Snedeker who has been pushed out all the way to 48.0 on Betfair and Luke Donald who looks absolutely huge relative to the field at 44.0....

Snedeker was 4th in the betting only few weeks back but has been recovering from injury of late while Donald has been struggling with his irons, leading to some sub standard performances. Both players are in the top five in the world in terms of short putting and this, for me, is the most important attribute to have at Augusta. They could easily turn it on this week and if they do, watch those prices plummet.

Another trading a little over the odds is Dustin Johnson at 36.0. DJ is just hitting form and while I don't really fancy him over four rounds here as arguably his biggest weakness is his short iron approaches - vital at the Masters, Johnson is always capable of going low and there is potential for a huge price swing over the first couple of rounds

I'm going to add 2 triple figure odds players into the mix now and the first of those is 100.0 Webb Simpson. Simpson didn't produce his best stuff here last year but with the added experience under his belt, he may fare better in 2013. I've simply got to back him at such a price. Another who excels with the putter (although he's had his problems this year due to experimentation in practice ahead of the upcoming long putter ban), his form seems to be coming back now and the major winner was the standout performer at the Tavistock Cup, shooting -2in tough conditions.

The second player is Stewart Cink at 290.0. Another former major winner who has bounced back into form of late with a T14 at Tampa Bay and top 6 at the Shell - both courses with greens similar to that at Augusta. Despite a poor season last year, Cink was a standout 2nd in putting from 10-15' and this gets my attention at a big price for Augusta.

Trading plan: I'm not going to get greedy here and I'm only looking for a small position to try and take advantage of what look to be very skewed odds to me. I'm simply going to split 10u on these players on the exchanges in a dutching fashion and trade completely after two rounds, positive or negative. Hopefully the leaderboard will be shaping up more the way I expect it to rather than what the current odds suggest and we can take some profit mid way through the event before Woods, McIlroy or Mickelson run away with it!

If you want to back these selections ew, Bet365 are offering £200 in free bets for new customers while Stanjames go top industry price on the field until US Masters tee off this week
Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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Golf Betting Tips Strategy

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