2012 BMW Masters Picks

We were close last week with Charles Howell(40) and Chad campbell (100) both looking good for a least a place half way through their respective rounds but the duo finished a shot outside the top five. Tommy Gainey showed the volatility of the golf betting markets when coming from miles back on the final day and although I never checked, I can imagine he was matched for a few quid at the magical 1000.0 figure on Betfair. This week we hit Shanghai for the inaugural BMW Masters

The events for the golf tipster comp this week to win a free £25 bet with Stanjames are the BMW Masters and CIMB Classic - feel free to play!

Eleven of the European Ryder cup team will tee it up at the BMW Masters this week on a lengthy 7,600 yard par 72, slightly undulating and potentially difficult Lake Malaren track. With little or no course form for most of the contenders, I'm confident enough in taking on the short priced big four at the top of the market.

BMW Masters Picks - Follow me on Twitter: @Nicspicks for all tips/ updates

Pick #1: Nicolas Colsaerts @ 22/1 (general) looks the perfect fit for the Lake Malaren track. Continuing on his form from the Ryder Cup during the fall series on the PGA Tour, Colsaerts is a previous winner in Asia and with Lake Malaren comprising generous fairways and rough capped at 90mm, expect him to let loose off the tee. With his finesse around the greens and confidence in his game currently, Colsaerts should challenge this week.

Pick #2: Peter Hanson ew @ 40/1 (general) I thought the days of Peter Hanson being over priced relative to the field in events of this ilk were over but apparantly not. Hanson is arguably the most improved player on tour over the last two years and he proves time and time again that he should be considered a genuine threat in big events like the BMW Masters, yet the market doesn't seem to agree. After a weekend 68-66 in India last week to post a top ten, I'll be looking to take advantage of this once more.

Pick #3: Charl Schwartzel ew @ 40/1(SB) A poor effort from Charl last week in Perth but he isn't a fan of courses where you need to shape the ball from the tee and after his exploits against Rory and Tiger the week before in the matchplay, I'm going to ignore his efforts in Australia. The length of the track at this week's BMW Masters along with the expansive landing areas will suit Schwartzel who can excel with his iron approaches (averages 12th in approaches from 125-200 yards on the PGATour in 2012) - the key to tackling many Jack Niclaus designs. 40s is simply too big relative to the market leaders.

Pick #4: Berndt Wiesberger ew @ 66/1 (Bet365) looks a very big price this week. The huge hitter, averaging over 300 yards on the European Tour from the tee this year (while hitting over 60% of fairways) is coming off the back of a top five at the Portugal Masters which, in terms of length and generosity off the tee, is very similar to course set up this week. Wiesberger is now a multiple tour winner, a genuine quality player and his game could be well suited to Lake Malaren.

BMW Masters Sleeper Watch

It's Marcel Siem and Sang Moon-Bae on the radar at this week's BMW Masters. Marcel Siem is at 150/1 ew or 125/1 ew with PP in the FRL market. Again this is a track that will suit Siem, who often flies out of the blocks and he showed signs of form in Portugal during round 2 and 3 before a poor final day. Bae tied 2nd at the CJ Invitational and came back last week at the Korea Open after an opening 79 in tough conditions to post a T11. Bae is on the radar as one of Asia's potential super stars and is available at 80/1 or 66/1 ew for FRL with Stanjames. As usual both represent potential long odds trading opportunities at 180.0 and 130.0 respectively.

Learn more about trading or the first round leader market.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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