2012 Tour Championship Picks

A huge event rounds up the main PGA Tour season across the water this week as the top 30 in the Fedex cup standings make their way to East Lake for the Tour Championship. With Tiger and Rory dominating the world of golf at the moment, there are some decent prices down the field and the set up of the Tour Championship venue would give us added incentive to back against the big two

East Lake is a ball strikers course. Accuracy and precision are key and big hitters may have to sacrifice their driver on a number of holes or find themselves struggling for position. Experience around this track will be vital as will pretty much all aspects of your game. Greens will run over 12.0 on the stimp and scrambling will play a huge part.

Rory often struggles on fast greens and has no course form where as Tiger hasn't featured much since a course revamp in 2008 and plenty of players arguably better equipped to tackle East Lake catch the eye. Head over to my Unibet golf column for the men I fancy could go well around this type of track and challenge strongly.

On the blog though, I'm going to focus on subsidiary Tour Championship markets that I think offer better value than the outright. The markets in question are the first round leader and "to shoot lowest round".

Tour Championship Picks (all ew) - Follow me on Twitter: @Nicspicks

Pick #1: Bo Van Pelt first round leader ew @ 30/1 (general) and to shoot lowest round @ 28/1 (skybet, PP) Big Bo is one of the most consistent players on tour with nine top tens and 15 top 25s from twenty three starts but he struggles get over the line. Opened with a 64 the other week at Crooked Stick and showed us what he is capable of in tough conditions by shooting a final day -8 at the Masters earlier in the year to record the low round of the tournament. Van Pelt is fourth in the all round, ninth in birdie average and one of the best ball strikers on tour.

Pick #2: Keegan Bradley ew first round leader @ 33/1 (general) and to shoot lowest round at 28/1 (skybet) A mediocre performance by Bradley last time out but a third round 63 at the Deutsche Bank a week previous gave us a reminder of what the talented American can do. Lethal with the putter from range, Bradley finished T11 here last year in his first appearance at the Tour championship. The Ryder Cup rookie ranks fifth in birdie average and a low one on a tough course is not an infrequent occurrence for Bradley.

Pick #3: Nick Watney ew first round leader @ 40/1 (ladbrokes) and to shoot lowest round @ 28/1 with Skybet. Watney is one of only five players that have the Fedex Cup in their own hands yet he's largely under the radar this week. Nick's had a poor season by his standards but as he showed at The Barclays, he's capable of turning it on at any time. In 2011 Watney hit the fifth lowest round on Tour and ranked fifth in birdie average. In 2012, despite indifferent form, he still ranks 16th in total birdies and the streaky birdie machine is another who can go low on tough courses.

If you fancy trading some of the inflated prices on Betfair, see my article on trading here

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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Golf Betting Tips Strategy

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