2012 KLM Open Picks - Value in the pack

With Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy dominating the market in America and with form so obvious and value thin at the BMW, I'm focusing on finding some value at the 2012 KLM Open this side of the pond

The KLM Open has alternated between the links at Kennemer and the more old school parkland style course that is Hilversumsche GC in recent years and it's the latter of the two that will host for the third year in succession. The course comprises average width fairways (although some are heavily contoured and will play narrower) and plays to a par 70 at under 7,000 yards. Conditions are expected to be firm and rough could play a part particularly if wet weather sets in so premium at the KLM Open this week is largely on tee to green play and good ball striking ability.

KLM Open Picks

Pick #1: Romain Wattel ew @ 40/1 (general) The young Frenchman has been on the radar for the best part of two years now. Wattel ranks 23rd in the 'putts per GIR' stat and knows how to go low. Arguably the form man on tour with progressive form reading 18, 3, 2, 40/1 looks a decent price on him to go one better this week at the KLM Open.

Pick #2: Danny Willett ew @ 45/1 (Boyles) Streaky Willett tied for second last week in Switzerland, carding four rounds in the sixties, and I expected the man who finally became a winner on tour earlier this year to be shorter in the betting. Danny has had some decent performances on old style parkland courses in the past and if he gets the putter going again this week, he should be a feature.

Pick #3: Gonzo Fdez Castano ew @ 50/1 (General) I have to stick with the former KLM Open at Hilversumsche winner this week despite a mediocre performance in Crans. Last week was Gonzo's first outing since the PGA so he was bound to be a bit rusty. If tee to green play is the premium, there are not many better than Castano, who also tied fourth here two years ago.

Pick #4: Victor Dubuisson e/w @ 70/1 (general) Another Frenchman gets the nod this week and just pips compatriot Gregory Bourdy on the KLM Open shortlist. Dubuisson ranks fifth in GIR% on the european tour and has three top 25s in his last six starts which includes a third place at the Ballantines. Most notably though he's demonstrated his liking for the Hilversumsche course by finishing in a tie for 12th in 2011.

Pick #5: Robert Coles ew @ 150/1 (general) It was a toss up between two players with course form for sleeper watch this week - Home favourite Martin Lafeber and rank outsider Robert Coles. I've gone with the latter due largely to price. Coles was one of the first round leaders last week at Crans and his form in Holland goes back to Hilversumsche before Kennemer took over. Having fired multiple rounds in the mid sixties around this track and simmering around his best current form, I can't ignore him at this price. Coles is trading over 200.0 on Betfair and could represent another good back-to-lay trading opportunity a la last week's sleeper Ryan Moore who traded as low as 10.0.

Fancy some no stress free golf bets this week? Up to £200 with Bet365
Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

Buy my Golf Betting Book £15.99 or 1/2 price on Kindle

<b>Buy my Golf Betting Book</b> £15.99 or 1/2 price on Kindle
Angles and Edges: a journey through the evolution of golf betting and the markets

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Best for Golf Betting

Golf Betting Tips Strategy

  1. Course fit and strokes gained in golf betting
  2. Tips: How to win betting on golf online
  3. Ryder Cup betting tips
  4. Golf Betting Tips Guides
  5. Who are the best sports handicappers?

  6. GOLF MAJORS 2024: The Masters - US PGA Championship - US Open - Open Championship