2012 Deutsche Bank Championship Picks - Birdie Time

Before the odds came out for the Deutsche Bank Championship - the second of the lucrative playoff events, I had Dustin Johnson and Bubba Watson firmly in mind. When the books were priced up, Dustin was shorter than I'd have liked and on closer inspection, Bubba's record around TPC Boston doesn't make my mouth water

Luke Donald won't be priced up close to the 20 mark too often and he got my attention at those odds but while I expect Dustin and Luke to be right there and well worth looking at, especially for trading purposes, I've decided it best to look for some value further down the Deutsche Bank Championship market

TPC boston is a birdie makers course. Ranked 37th in difficulty on tour last year, firing at pins and going low is the brief. With room for maneuver off the tee, aggressive players tend to go well as recent leaderboards would show. Good fast green putters coming to the fore is also a trend to take a look at around this track.

2012 Deutsche Bank Championship picks - Follow me on Twitter :@Nicspicks

Pick #1: Brandt Snedeker ew @ 25/1 (general) With the mix of current and course form along with the good fast green putter theme, I can't overlook Sneds, even at a current best price of 25/1. The American has been quiet enough since his exploits at the Open championship but hit top form with a bang again last week with a 2nd place finish. Snedeker ranks no.1 in strokes gained putting, sixth in birdie average and finished a progressive T5 and T3 at the Deutsche Bank Championship the last two years respectively.

Pick #2: Geoff Ogilvy ew @ 40/1 (general) Last thing I expected was the early 50s across the board to all be snapped up but Geoff is an obvious choice for me at the Deutsche Bank Championship. Another who excels on fast greens, I watched Geoff here having backed him in 2010. He got the putter going early on and was a brilliant -7 through only twelve holes on day one en route to a 2nd place finish behind another birdie machine in Charlie Hoffman. Ogilvy finished 7th here in 09 and plays some of his best stuff at this time of year. In his last four events, all constituting some of the best fields in golf, he hasn't finished outside the top 25.

Pick #3: Charl Schwartzel ew @ 55/1 (Bet365) With a course set up such as this, Charl will always be one on the radar while in any semblance of form. 14th at the Wyndham and T24 at the Barclays after a poor Sunday, Schwartzel loves courses that are there to be attacked. Ranked 41st in total driving and 5th in par four birdie or better leaders, the south African looks very generous odds relative to the field.

Pick #4: Jason Day ew @ 50/1 (general) Another aggressive birdie making machine who has placed 3rd and 2nd the last two years at the Deutsche Bank championship. Day has had a stop start season due to personal reasons but has a decent run of golf under his belt currently. He closed out last week with an eye catching 66 and will enjoy the extra room from the tee. Day excels in putting from 15-20ft, ranking 2nd, and likes slick greens.

Pick #5: Ryan Moore ew @ 125/1 (general) On sleeper watch this week is tee to green expert Ryan Moore. Ryan ranks 10th in par four birdie or better average, has only missed three cuts this season and is simmering of late formwise. He was right in the mix after three rounds at the Barclays and represents a good long odds trading opportunity. Tenth here at the Deutsche Bank Championship last year, Moore is also available at 100/1 ew for first round leader.

Remember, if you fancy trading the Deutsche Bank championship, you will need a Betfair account and it is much appreciated if you sign up through my links.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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