Greenbrier Classic Picks / Open De France Picks

The Greenbrier Classic was a very profitable tournament for Nicspicks' premium trading service last year, and one Jimmy Walker played a big part in that. Shooting a 62 in round three, Walker fired himself into contention and hit his trading target. Walker is firmly on the radar here again

Anthony Kim was another to bring in the profits that week and the Old White course at Greenbrier is very much one that can be taken advantage of by the big hitters. Conducive to very low rounds, the winning total here in 2010 was 22 under par, with Stuart Appleby firing a final round -11. Fairways, although tightened somewhat and lengthened significantly over the last two years, are relatively generous and greens are undulating; I'm looking for players who can boast big hitting coupled with good flat stick ability.

Pick #1: Jimmy Walker e/w @ 66/1 (SJ)(6 plces) As mentioned, Walker looked extremely good on this track last year at the Greenbrier Classic, eventually finishing in a tie for 4th but he looked like he'd be the man to beat until he failed to take advantage of some opportunities down the stretch. Walker has found some form at the minute and was right in the mix early doors in the AT&T last week. Ranked 49th in driving distance and 25th in putting from 5-15', Walker fits the bill here.

Pick #2: Jeff Overton e/w @ 50/1 (general) Overton, astonishingly, finished in a tie for 22nd at the AT&T last week after carding an opening round 79. This was on the back of a 13th place finish in his previous event and Overton was the man to miss out to Appleby in 2010 by just a solitary stroke. Forgiving from the tee, the Old White TPC course is well suited to Overton's game and 50's looks too big for the former Ryder Cup star.

Trading advice: Dustin Johnson should begin the event trading around 25.0. He's the name amongst the market leaders that stands out the most in terms of having the potential to see a big swing in his odds over the first two day's play. A low round from Johnson here on either day could see him trading below 6.0.

First round leader: John Daly is a man who still knows how to go low and 150/1 e/w in this market on a course that should suit the big hitting American really catches the eye. The last round Daly played on American soil this year was a 64 in the St Jude.

Open de France

Pick #3: Richie Ramsay tweeted the other day that solid ball striking is needed around Le Golf Nacional and I recall he very much enjoyed the slick greens here last year, having played much of his golf in America. T5th here in 2011 and off the back of a top 16 in Ireland, 70/1 with Bet365 is too big.

First round leader: Three players that feature strongly down the years at Le Golf Nacional are Richard Green (70), Alejandro Canizares (100) and James Morrison (100) who opened here last year with a couple of 66s. All three are showing signs of form with the latter carding a round of -8 in recent open qualifying and Canizares featuring in last week's Irish Open. All three will be at huge odds and are worth backing e/w in this market.

For full previews, picks and in play advice, keep an eye on my columns at Unibet and Matchbook and follow me on twitter: @Nicspicks

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

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To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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