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2012 Scottish Open Picks - Nicolas to shine?

It's the second edition of the Scottish Open from the Castle Stuart golf links and last year, despite poor weather conditions cutting the event to three rounds, scoring was extremely low. Fairways are generous and many par fours play under 400 yards. Birdie chances aplenty should be on offer for the high quality field


With so many star names over in preparation for the Open Championship, there is plenty of value on offer this week and many firms go six places on this year's Scottish Open.

Scottish Open Picks

Pick #1: George Coetzee e/w @ 50/1 (general) was one of last week's Unibet picks and featured strongly at a big price. In fact, he built up a nice lead half way during Saturday's round and looked like he may pull away from the field but a poor final day saw him slide down the leaderboard. That leaves him at a false price again though this week and I'll be sticking with George. Coetzee was tied third at the Scottish Open last year and can benefit from the forgiving fairways.

Pick #2: Matteo Manassero e/w @ 66/1 (Bet365) returned to some form last week in France, opening with a round of 66 en route to a top twenty finish. The young Italian has been working on a few swing changes and has reportedly added a few yards to his driving. Lethal from inside 20 feet with the putter, Manassero for me is a very similar player to Luke Donald who of course won here last year due mainly to his ability with the flat stick. Manassero is often a fast starter and another great option is to back him e/w in the first round leader market at a generous 50/1 with Hills.

Pick #3: Alex Noren e/w at 70/1 (SJ) If going low is the brief, generous fairways are on the agenda and Alex Noren, in any sort of form, is available at such a big price, he is a must pick for me. Again this course could play into Noren's hands. It's a couple of top 15 finishes now for the Swede in his last three events and he bounced back well in France last week. Alex has shown in the past that he is comfortable in the wind, winning in both Sweden and Wales, and is capable of going extremely low on any given day.

Trading advice: (read my article on trading here) Still waiting on the tee times but Nicolas Colsaerts looks a good potential trade over the first couple of rounds. If he's out early on day 1 and goes low, we will see him come in from 25.0 close to 5.0. If he's out late, waiting two rounds may be a better option. If he remains around the same odds (starting) over the first two days, taking your stake back is advised.

Pablo Larrazabal is the long odds eye catcher here. Trading at a ridiculous 190.0 on Betfair, Pablo is another who's game may be perfect for this course. Capable of shooting low numbers, we could see a quick and huge swing in his odds if he runs well. Worth a small investment as form is a little erratic.

Follow me on Twitter: @Nicspicks for in running tips and updates

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Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


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Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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