2012 Scottish Open Picks - Nicolas to shine?

It's the second edition of the Scottish Open from the Castle Stuart golf links and last year, despite poor weather conditions cutting the event to three rounds, scoring was extremely low. Fairways are generous and many par fours play under 400 yards. Birdie chances aplenty should be on offer for the high quality field

With so many star names over in preparation for the Open Championship, there is plenty of value on offer this week and many firms go six places on this year's Scottish Open.

Scottish Open Picks

Pick #1: George Coetzee e/w @ 50/1 (general) was one of last week's Unibet picks and featured strongly at a big price. In fact, he built up a nice lead half way during Saturday's round and looked like he may pull away from the field but a poor final day saw him slide down the leaderboard. That leaves him at a false price again though this week and I'll be sticking with George. Coetzee was tied third at the Scottish Open last year and can benefit from the forgiving fairways.

Pick #2: Matteo Manassero e/w @ 66/1 (Bet365) returned to some form last week in France, opening with a round of 66 en route to a top twenty finish. The young Italian has been working on a few swing changes and has reportedly added a few yards to his driving. Lethal from inside 20 feet with the putter, Manassero for me is a very similar player to Luke Donald who of course won here last year due mainly to his ability with the flat stick. Manassero is often a fast starter and another great option is to back him e/w in the first round leader market at a generous 50/1 with Hills.

Pick #3: Alex Noren e/w at 70/1 (SJ) If going low is the brief, generous fairways are on the agenda and Alex Noren, in any sort of form, is available at such a big price, he is a must pick for me. Again this course could play into Noren's hands. It's a couple of top 15 finishes now for the Swede in his last three events and he bounced back well in France last week. Alex has shown in the past that he is comfortable in the wind, winning in both Sweden and Wales, and is capable of going extremely low on any given day.

Trading advice: (read my article on trading here) Still waiting on the tee times but Nicolas Colsaerts looks a good potential trade over the first couple of rounds. If he's out early on day 1 and goes low, we will see him come in from 25.0 close to 5.0. If he's out late, waiting two rounds may be a better option. If he remains around the same odds (starting) over the first two days, taking your stake back is advised.

Pablo Larrazabal is the long odds eye catcher here. Trading at a ridiculous 190.0 on Betfair, Pablo is another who's game may be perfect for this course. Capable of shooting low numbers, we could see a quick and huge swing in his odds if he runs well. Worth a small investment as form is a little erratic.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

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