Irish Open Picks 2012

Accurate and competent wind players are what should be your main focus of attention as the European Tour hits my blustery homeland of Ireland. A fabulous Dunluce links course at Portrush GC awaits some of the finest golfers this week

No surprise that wind and rain are forecasted to play a big role in proceedings and while fairways may be generous, stray from the short grass and finding your ball will be difficult in extreme rough. Scoring may be made on the short par fives.

Irish Open Picks - In-play tips and updates on Twitter: @Nicspicks

Pick #1: Simon Dyson e/w @ 35/1(general) Tipped for the Irish Open last year, Dyson returns to these shores ready for another assault on Irish soil. One of the best links players around with three European Tour wins on links courses, Dyson found some form, after injury problems, last week in Germany, finishing 12th in blustery conditions over the weekend. Shot shaping and accurate iron play are some of Dyson's strengths and it's no coincidence his record on links tracks is such a good one.

Pick #2: Gonzalo Fdez Castano e/w @ 40/1 (general) With a touch of Ernie Els in his swing, Gonzo is another player who excels in windy conditions. Memories cast back to early in the season where he took the first round lead in Qatar in extreme blustery conditions and he made it look easy. Two top fives in his last three starts and slow greens at the Irish Open in Portrush will help his short putting problems.

Pick #3: Joost Luiten e/w @ 66/1(SB) Joost is another who knows how to cope in windy conditions. Prominent in the wind swept Trophee Hassan earlier in the year, Luiten put runs of birdies together and at one stage looked like he'd run away with the tournament. Surprisingly enough Luiten hit 70% of fairways in 2011 and sneaks in to the Irish Open picks this week due to a relatively very favourable price.

Sleeper Watch: Alan Dunbar is a Portrush native who grew up playing golf very close to this course. The recent Amateur Championship winner and Walker cup man will be well used to conditions and may be one to watch in the first round leader market(100). Other Irish flying under the radar in this market are Damien McGrane (80) and Paul cutler (200 now best price - SJ), the former who gave subscribers a 100/1 FRL winner earlier in the year and shot a second round 66 in Germany last week.

My one under the radar this week is Stephen Gallagher. Available e/w at around 100/1 in both the first round leader and outright markets, Gallagher is in fine form and is well used to windy conditions, having grown up in Scotland. Started brightly at the BMW but fell away. Form kept up at the Open Championship qualifying this Monday.

If you don't fancy backing the shorter priced players in a tournament where wind and rain will possibly make it somewhat of a lottery, backing numerous golfers at huge odds and for smaller stakes (dutching style) on Betfair is a strategy that has paid for me, especially with a view to trading your picks - more info here

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Golf Player Profiles

Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022

My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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