Wells Fargo Championship / Open De Espana Picks 2012

The markets this week are dominated by the big names with two very stong fields and it will be hard for the outsiders to crash the party. As usual though, there are a few big priced players that I fancy could upset the big boys and they are listed below. For my main picks and shorter priced fancies this week, keep an eye on my Unibet column on Wednesday.

Wells Fargo Championship
Pick 1: 0.5pts e/w John Senden @ 100/1 (now 80's) I mentioned John Senden yesterday on my Twitter: @Nicspicks as my big triple odds fancy. Quail Hollow is one of the toughest tracks on the PGA Tour and premium is on total driving(length and accuracy combined), par four performance and bogey avoidance. Senden ranks 10th in total driving, 8th in par 4 performance and 3rd in ball striking. Ever consistent at Quail Hollow, being a regular feature in the top 30, Senden hit a fabulous second round 64 here last year and comes into the event off the back of a 69-69 finish at the Zurich classic.

Pick 2: 0.5pts Jonathan Byrd e/w @ 80/1 (general) Carolina native Byrd went toe to toe with Clemson University College mate Lucas Glover in the playoff at the Wells Fargo last year and just missed out on victory. Good course knowledge will stand him in good stead coming into the tournament off the back of a confidence building 27th place finish at the Masters.

Open De Espana
Pick 3: 0.75pts e/w Simon Dyson @ 55/1 (general) 'Simmering' is a word I often use when referring to the form of golfers and that is exactly what Simon Dyson is at the moment. 24th in malaysia and 36th in china, Dyson faces a course with very penal rough in wet conditions. Playing under 7,200 yards long, accuracy from the tee and accurate iron play - Dyson's type of game, could see him rewarded this week.

Pick 4: 0.5pts e/w Gary Boyd @ 150/1 (general) Going for another Curtis this week with Boyd. Form in Spain and I've been watching him closely in recent weeks. Similar form to Dyson but he's hit four rounds in the mid sixties in his last two events. If he can put them all together this week, we could have another big winner! Boyd is another of those on my 'one to watch' list and looked a top player at the back end of 2010.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

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What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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