HP Byron Nelson Championship Picks 2012

A narrow miss for Laird last week as we came close to our second 150/1 winner in the last month but a big place return keeps us moving along nicely. This week we head to the HP Byron Nelson Championship where wind usually has a huge say in the outcome of the event.

In expected gusty conditions, I like to have a lot of smaller bets on bigger priced players as it can be very similar to the Grand National, with favourites falling everywhere. I've compiled a draft of tissue prices for the HP Byron Nelson, pointing out the fair odds and value(or not)IMO on the main runners - access it here

Texas natives or residents and/or other competent wind players will be the main focus of picks for the Byron Nelson Championship this week.

HP Byron Nelson Picks

0.75pts e/w Ryan Palmer @ 45/1 (general) The slightly enigmatic Palmer is a Texas native well used to conditions in the area. Palmer lost out in a playoff to Keegan Bradley at the Byron Nelson last year and comes into the event after just failing to make the cut at the Players, but posted a top five finish in his previous start at the Zurich Classic. Proven winner.

0.75pts e/w Jimmy Walker @ 80/1 (general) You will see from my odds draft that I think Jimmy Walker's price this week is huge. I rate him in the top ten or so of the market at less than half the price he is available at. A Texas resident with course experience, long hitting Walker looked in solid shape last week at The Players and tends to excel in tougher conditions.

0.5pts e/w Blake Adams @ 100/1 (general) Runner up here to Jason day in 2010, Adams will have fond memories of TPC Las Colinas. Adams finished in a tie for 12th at The Players and had a top 30 at the Valero - the last event in Texas. Ranks 44th in total driving and 45th in scrambling, two key attributes this week.

0.5pts e/w Marc Leishman @ 90/1 (general) Another player who excels in the wind is Aussie Marc Leishman. T8 in 2009 and 12th in 2010 at the Byron Nelson, the course and conditions obviously play into his hands. Consistent form this year with only two missed cuts in 11.

0.5pts e/w Harrison Frazar @ 100/1 (general) Texas native Frazar has posted two top 20's here the last two years; hardly surprising given he had a hand in the course redesign, as did JJ Henry who may also be one to watch this week. Frazar posted two rounds in the sixties at The Players so his game is there or there abouts. Two top fives early on in the season in windy Hawaii, big hitting Frazer opened up at 150/1 with Bet365 and is the big sleeper this week.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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