Crowne Plaza Invitational / BMW PGA Championship Picks

A big week looms on the golfing calender and I'll get straight to the picks as full previews will be up on later in the week.

Crowne Plaza Invitational Picks

Pick 1: 0.75u e/w Harris English @ 100/1(general) As mentioned on Twitter on Monday, this is one of the best value prices of the season. English hit a spectator in the head from his tee shot early in round three at The Players which really shook him up and he had a terrible weekend because of it. A great example of misleading stats hence a completely inaccurate price and Harris has firmly put it behind him, shooting a round of -10 in Open qualifying(Mon). One of the best ball strikers on tour, ranking 19th, and being talked up by other pros, English hit his best finish (T8) this season at the RBC Heritage on a track with similar characteristics to Colonial.

Pick 2: 0.5pts e/w Carl Pettersson @ 50/1(Hills) Winner of the RBC Heritage on the extremely tight Harbour Town Links where he gave a masterclass in driving the golf ball, Pettersson is a fancy of mine for more of the same this week at the Crowne Plaza Invitational. A slip up at the Byron Nelson after a top ten at The Players, Pettersson seems in good spirits and happy about his game according to his Twitter. Multiple winner ranks 12th in the all round this year.

Pick 3: 0.75pts e/w Sergio Garcia @ 35/1 (general) Horses for courses and Garcia, being one of the game's best from tee to green, I have to like the look of him around Colonial for the Crowne Plaza Invitational. Putting problems remain but his long game is nearing it's peak. T16 here last year.

BMW PGA Championship Picks

Pick 4: 0.5pts e/w Anders Hansen @ 50/1(general) Multiple winner of the BMW PGA Championship on a course he loves, Anders Hansen is in fine form this season with numerous top 30s including one at The Masters. A regular feature on the leaderboards around Wentworth, I was instantly drawn to his price, which looks extremely big relative to the other likely contenders.

Pick 5: 0.5pts e/w Peter Hanson @ 33/1 (general) One of my favourite and most profitable golfers of all time, how can I ignore him at another healthy price! Similar to Colonial, ball striking and tee to green play will be a premium around twisty fairways where ball shaping will be required. Penal fairway bunkers will be in play and erratic approach shots will leave tough up and downs. BMW PGA top 20s the last two years running for Hanson who has really stepped up his game this year in the big events.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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