2012 Players Championship Preview and picks

I mentioned on my Twitter that The Players Championship market is top heavy with 'false favourites' and as such, there's plenty of value and picks to choose from this week with most books going six places.

First though, a quick word about Tiger and a relatively huge price of 25/1. For those of you who will be backing to lay (trading), the simple fact is that this is a must bet opportunity. Note that if Tiger even gets a whiff of the lead, his price will come in massively with a complete over-reaction in the market, leaving a nice potential trading profit - read more on trading here

The TPC of Sawgrass is a demanding par 72 track playing 7,215 yards long that will test every aspect of the player's games. Those with course knowledge and experience will have a big advantage on the field here at The Players Championship. Plenty of shot making is required, especially if the wind blows and those with top ball striking skills and shot shaping ability will thrive. Conditions are generally fast and firm at TPC Sawgrass.

The Players Championship Picks All prices with Bet365

Pick 1: 0.5pts e/w Adam Scott @ 40/1 (Bet365) Adam Scott has been playing very sparingly this season but has finished his last two tournaments extremely strongly. 8th at the Masters after a poor opening day and a weekend 68-65 at the Ballantines to finish T12, his game is obviously in good shape and his mind is fresh. Scott ranked second in the all round in 2011 on the PGA Tour.

Pick 2: 0.5pts e/w Jim Furyk @ 50/1 (Bet365) As mentioned, experience is vital at The Players Championship and not many know the course better than local man Furyk. Two top fives posted at Sawgrass in his last five starts, Furyk warmed up nicely last week with a T26 at the Wells Fargo and ranks 14th in scrambling on tour this year.

Pick 3: 0.5pts e/w Graeme McDowell @ 66/1 (Bet365) Another with superb shot making skills who can thrive if the wind hots up. Simmering this year of late, McDowell challenged hard at The Players Championship last year before a final round capitulation. Good record in the Florida area.

Pick 4: 0.5pts e/w Ben Crane @ 66/1 (general) Big price on a player that arguably boasts the best course form here along with Sergio Garcia in recent times. Three top sixes for Ben in his last six starts at The Players Championship and he comes into the event showing good current form too, finishing with three top 30s in his last four events. Ranks 12th in the all round.

Pick 5: 0.5pts e/w David Toms @ 80/1 (Bet365) With a good record at the Players championship and just sneaking into form at the right time, Toms almost completed another PGA Tour success at Sawgrass last year, losing out narrowly to KJ Choi, having held the half way lead. Toms enjoys the slick greens in Ponta Vedra, currently 12.5 on the stimp.

The Players Championship Sleeper Pick

0.5pts e/w Martin Laird @ 150/1 (Bet365) I've been watching Martin Laird very closely this year with his new longer putter and he's one on the list for a potential big priced win. His performances thus far havn't been producing the results they may have and last week at the Wells Fargo summed that up as numerous charges up the leaderboard were followed by drop shots aplenty. Signs of his game about to catch fire though and it may be this week.

Six places for The Players Championship with Bet365 who are offering up to £200 in free bets to use on the event.

Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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Golf Betting Tips Strategy

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