Zurich Classic Golf Picks 2012

Last week was a great week for the blog as 150/1 sleeper pick Ben Curtis took down the Valero Texas Open. Sticking to the PGA Tour, there's some great value further down the field this week at the Zurich Classic with quite a few big names returning to action after the Masters and they dominate the market. We may see some rust in their games though and for me the market is a bit lop sided. I'll be focusing mainly on big prices this week.

Bombers tend to have an advantage around the TPC of Louisiana but a quick look down past leaderboards tells you that it's not necessarily the bigger hitters that always prevail. However, the primary focus for my picks this week will be on those with some length off the tee.

Zurich Classic Picks

Pick 1: 1pt e/w Cameron Tringale @ 50/1 (general) Top 20 at last year's Zurich Classic and I often mention it pays to stick with players and after he just missed out on a place for us last week, I'm sticking with him on a course that should suit. Ranking 16th in total driving, the meticulous youngster comes off the back of two T8 finishes. Showed great resilience to hang in there well after a terrible start to both day three and day four play in Texas.

Pick 2: 1pt e/w Scott Piercy @ 90/1 (general) Piercy is another big hitter I have my eye on at a big price this week. Capable of going extremely low and with a course generous off the tee, Piercy gets the vote. Mixed bag this season with a plethora of top 20's and missed cuts. Good value in the first round leader market too at 80/1 ew. Ranks 20th in driving distance.

Pick 3: 1pt e/w Geoff Ogilvy @ 66/1 with Ladbrokes - £50 free bet Another who may benefit from the generous fairways. Simmering this year with only one missed cut and a host of top 30 finishes, Ogilvy is one of the better putters on tour and on a course that places emphasis on approaches and plays tough in terms of proximity to the hole, Ogilvy may have an advantage.

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Read the full preview and picks for both the Zurich Classic and Ballantines Championship over on my Unibet column today.

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Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022

My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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