Valero Texas Open Golf Picks 2012

The blog focus is on the PGA Tour this week where the players once again tee it up in Texas. The Valero Texas Open, a profitable event for Nicspicks in recent years, will be played at the AT&T Oaks Course at San Antonio for the third successive season. Premium this week will be on distance control into fast and tricky greens, as well as putting. Those high in the total driving stat will be at an advantage with the course playing over 7,500 yards through tree lined fairways. Follow me on Twitter: @Nicspicks for in running trades, updates and advice.

Valero Texas Open Picks

Pick 1: 1pt e/w Freddy Jacobsen @ 25/1 (general) Jacobsen has bounced back into form out of nowhere on the PGA Tour this season with a top 20 at The Masters, followed by contending at Hilton Head, before collapsing over the last 14 or so holes. The Harbour Town course wasn't exactly a Jacobsen type track and if he was in the mix last week, he must be driving the ball well. Jacobsen has always excelled on and around the greens and at the 2010 Valero Texas Open, he tackled them superbly on his way to a 2nd place finish here. Jacobsen ranked 8th in total putting in 2011.

Pick 2: 0.75pts e/w JB Holmes @ 25/1 (general) Another who contended strongly in 2010. Bad weather forced a 36 hole day on Sunday for a lot of the field and big JB Holmes may have struggled in the fatigue department as he fell back to a tie for 13th, when looking the likely winner after three rounds were completed. Holmes hit another top 15 here last year and has bounced back superbly from a serious recent brain operation, showing progressive form with a top 30 at the Arnold Palmer followed by a T8 in Houston.

Pick 3: 0.5pts e/w Jimmy Walker @ 50/1 (general) As mentioned, this has been a profitable event in recent years for Nicspicks blog and in 2010, three of my four picks: Adam Scott(22) Jacobsen(35) Walker (140/1) and 18/1 top ten finish, finished 1,2,3, with final pick Hoffman also finishing in a solid 13th place so let's hope for a repeat! Walker isn't in the best of form right now after a good start to the season but as a local resident, this is his course and he has a significant advantage over the field. Jimmy represents some value at 50/1 for this week's Valero Texas Open, with three top 10 finishes under his belt so far in 2012.

Pick 4: Cameron Tringale @ 60/1 (Betfred) Huge price relative to the field on a man coming off the back of a top 10 at the Shell Houston. Showing progressive form in this event in the last two years with a top 30 in 2010 followed by a T5 last year. Ranks 10th in Total Driving, a key attribute around the Oaks course and Tringale is on my 'one to watch' list this year for a potential big priced win.

Valero Texas Open Sleeper Pick

Pick 5: 0.25pts e/w Ben Curtis @ 150/1 (general) A pick that you are unlikely to see anywhere else this week is Ben Curtis. Now spending his time between tours, Curtis, at such a big price, is one I've noted due to his ability with the putter. Those rolling the ball nicely on the greens tend to do well at the TPC San Antonio and Curtis may just surprise a few people off the back of some good performances in Europe earlier in the season.

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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Golf Betting Tips Strategy

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