2012 Humana Challenge Picks

The PGA Tour sees the Humana Challenge this week (formerly Bob Hope) and the pro-am event has been reduced to a regular 72 hole tournament, with the SilverRock course being cut from the schedule. The Humana Challenge is an annual birdie fest with the course and pin positions being set up easily to suit the amateur players. Birdie makers and top short putters will be the focus of the picks for this week's Humana Challenge. Follow me on Twitter: @Nicspicks for in running trades and updates.

Humana Challenge Picks

Top Offers for this week's golf: 1. Free £50 bet with Betfred
2. Up to £200 in free bets with Bet365

Pick 1: 0.75pts E/W Bill Haas @ 22/1 with bet365 - Up to £200 in free bets Multiple top 25's for Haas in the Humana Challenge including a playoff defeat last year, and winner here in 2010, Haas is a very obvious picks this week and the favourite for me. Obviously a step up in confidence for the 29 year old after capturing the 2011 Fedex Cup and expect big things in 2012.

Pick 2: 0.5pts E/W Bryce Molder @ 40/1 with Betfred - Free £50 bet 33rd here last year after a disastrous round two 76. Ranked 8th in putting from 5-15' in 2011 which could be a vital attribute in the Humana challenge.

Pick 3: 0.5pts E/W Brian Gay @ 40/1(general) T5 last year in the Humana Challenge and T15 in 2010, Gay comes into the event off the back of a T6 in Hawaii. 10th in putting from 5-15' in 2010 and can blow away the field when the short stick is firing. Great value for this year's Humana Challenge.

NB: Trading the golf on Betfair is where I've made a lot of my profits over the last few years and I strongly recommend E/W backers to find out more about it - Click for more information and screenshots

Pick 4: 0.5pts E/W Rory Sabbitini @ 60/1 with bet365 - Up to £200 in free bets Ranked 40th in total birdies in 2011 and seems to be simmering at the moment. Likes the atmosphere in pro am events and has course as well as current form at the Humana Challenge.

Humana Challenge Sleeper Pick:
Pick 5: 0.5pts E/W Brendan De Jonge @ 70/1 with bet365 - Up to £200 in free bets 4th last year in total birdies made and decent course form with two top 35 finishes in last two years at the Humana Challenge, De Jonge just gets the nod over Kyle Stanley this week due to a T9 at the Sony Open. Very streaky player who can go extremely low on any given day and a regular in contention late on last year.

Note: If you're betting E/W, take advantage of Bet365's offer up to £200 in free bets to use on this week's Humana Challenge.
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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