2012 Farmers Insurance Open Picks

The 2012 golf season is beginning to settle down now and some of the big names return to the field for the Farmers Insurance Open to be played at Torrey Pines North and South courses. The South course plays as one of the longest on tour at almost 7,600 yards and premium is very much on tee to green play at the Farmers Insurance Open. Top experienced ball strikers with good total driving stats will be my primary focus. Those high in scrambling stats won't be far behind. Follow me on Twitter @Nicspicks for in running trades and updates.

Another thing to note for early round trading is that the North course plays under 6,900 yards to a par of 72 and many shots easier. Players will play one round there over the first two days. Players like Mickelson, Watney and Watson with obvious course form dominate the market but all have reason to be opposed this week at the Farmers Insurance Open.

Farmers Insurance Open Picks

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Pick 1: 0.75pts e/w Brandt Snedeker @ 25/1 with Betfred - £50 free bet Snedeker a standout pick for me this week. Superb course form at Torrey Pines with a 3rd place finish in 07, T2 in 2010 and T9 in 2011. Snedeker also finished T8 on Torrey Pines South Course at the US Open in 08. Off the back of a T8 last week where he was at the top of the putting stats. Snedeker can also hit birdies in bunches as he showed while finishing with six straight at the end of day 3 last week and he can use this to his advantage on the North course.

Pick 2: 0.5pts e/w Ben Crane @ 33/1 (Stanjames) T8 with Snedeker last week, 2nd in the all round ranking in 2010 which shows he has what it takes for the Farmers Insurance Open, as does his win here in 2010 along with multiple top 10's at Torrey Pines.

Pick 3: 0.5pts e/w Keegan Bradley @35/1 with Bet365 - £200 in free bets The Farmers Insurance Open is a horses for courses tournament where big hitters have the advantage and Bradley finished a respectable T25 here in his rookie year. Ranked 12th in total driving in 2011 and 36th in ball striking.

Pick 4: 0.5pts e/w Bo Van Pelt @ 60/1 with Bet365 - £200 in free bets 14th in ball striking and T9 in total driving in 2011, BVP is one of the best players in the game of golf from tee to green. Continued this year where he left off, ranking T2 in total driving after only one event. Tends to thrive on the difficult courses and should be suited to the Torrey Pines South at the Farmers Insurance Open.

Farmers Insurance Open Sleeper Pick

NB: Trading the golf is where I've made a lot of my profits over the last few years. Click link to learn more (screenshots available)

Pick 5: 0.25pts e/w Sul-Yeung Noh E/W @ 150/1 with Betfred - £50 free bet The stats won't tell you but Noh is actually one of the bigger hitters in the game of golf and one I have my eye on in his rookie PGA Tour season, hoping to get him at some big prices. Exceptional talent and could be suited to Torrey Pines. Just gets the nod over Robert Garrigus due to his three figure price for this week's Farmers Insurance Open.
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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