THE BARCLAYS PICKS 2011

The multi million pound Playoff events kick off this week on the PGA golf tour in the form of the Barclays. We will see a new venue once again for the Barclays this year and it's always a lot tougher with no course form or knowledge to go on but from my study so far, it seems the course will suit the experienced steady players who know how to plot their way around. Plainfield C.C plays under 7,000 yards long to a par of 71 with positioning from the tee key. Greens are slopey and players will need the intelligence to keep the approach shots under the hole. Nicspicks' man to beat: Luke donald (12/1)

For those who trade or would like an insight into trading golf tournaments, I'm currently running a golf trading advisory service. This week I'll be trading The Barclays. The service includes in running picks, sleeper picks, trading plan and in running email updates and advice, in addition to pre tournament selections. Click link for more details. So far we are 5.5units in profit after 4 events. See more on golf trading including one of my more volatile strategies here.

The Barclays Picks
Pick 1: Steve Stricker E/W @ 16/1 (general) Absolutely loves the Playoff season with numerous high finishes in recent years. Steady as they come ranking 1st in putting, 3nd in the all round and 2nd in scoring average. Off the back of a good PGA championship and he'll be looking to add another win to his CV at the Barclays.

Pick 2: Nick Watney E/W @ 25/1 (general) 3rd in scoring average, 5th in the all round, 7th in birdie average, current leader of the Fedex Cup and good value to win it but most importantly Watney looks to be just about to hit top gear once again coming into the Barclays.

Pick 3: David Toms E/W @ 33/1 (general) Top 10 at the Bridgestone, 4th at the PGA and finished with a 65 last week at the Wyndham to secure a top 20 finish. If it's experience, intelligent golf and precision play you're looking for, there are not many better candidates than Toms.

Pick 4: Jim Fuyrk E/W @ 45/1 (general) Last year's Playoffs winner Furyk has returned to form after a crazy season by his standards. A good PGA championship backed up by a top 10 last week. Again in a similar mould to Toms and from what I've read, the Barclays Plainfield track may set up similarly to Hilton Head where Furyk has a fantastic record.

The Barclays Sleeper Pick
Pick 5: Mark Wilson @ 125/1 (general) Last but not least, a man completely under the radar this week. A course that could very much suit already two time winner Mark Wilson at the Barclays. T17 at the Bridgestone a few weeks back. Loves to plot his way around shorter courses and if he gets in contention, he's mentally strong enough to stick around.

Note: If you're betting E/W, take advantage of Bet365's offer up to £200 in free bets to use on this week's Barclays tournament.
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.


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Angles and Edges: a journey through the evolution of golf betting and the markets

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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