The Irish Open returns to Killarney this week where, weather permitting, the course will be conducive to some low scoring. Ross Fisher, tipped here to win last year, was on course for a 59 in round 2 only to come unstuck towards the end of his round. Rory McIlroy obviously heads the Irish Open market and I'm a little worried about him running away with it like he did at the US Open but with a strong quartet of Irish guys heading the betting, there is some good value further down the Irish Open market as we try to build on the Noren FRL and outright wins last week. The Irish bookmakers are paying 6 places this week.

GOLF TRADING: For those who like to or are interested in trading the golf, I'm running a trial golf trading advisory service beginning this week with the Greenbrier Classic. Click link for more details. Deadline is 6pm Wednesday. You will need a Betfair account. See a sample of one of my trading strategies here.

Irish Open Picks
Pick 1: Simon Dyson E/W @ 28/1 (PP) Sticking with Dyson once more at the Irish Open. A player in top form at the moment and unlucky to get the worst of the weather at the Open Championship in round 3. The Killarney course will suit Dyson who is not afraid to go low. If the wind blows, he's more capable than most of handling that too.

Pick 2: Richard Finch E/W @ 60/1 (PP) Arguably the form man of the European Tour at the moment and a previous winner of the Irish Open to bring back fond memories. Shot a fantastic final round at the Nordea Masters in some of the worst winds you will see and looks a good value price at the Irish Open this week.

Pick 3: Robert Rock E/W @ 40/1 (PP) First time winner on the European Tour a few weeks back, good form in Ireland, ironically taking the Irish Open winners cheque 2 years ago as Shane Lowry was still an amateur at the time. Can shoot low and also good in adverse weather conditions if the wind blows. Good form has continued since his maiden win.

Golf Match Betting: One bookmaker has matched a 22/1 shot with a general 45/1 shot. Find out who with my Premium Tips service.

Pick 4: Richard Green E/W @ 33/1 (Boyle) Three top 20's in last 4 starts including a T16 at the Open championship. T5 at the Irish Open last year. Accurate off the tee on what is predominantly a tree lined course and excellent putter. Often starts fast.

Pick 5: Damien Mc Grane E/W @ 80/1 (PP) Coming into form just at the right time for his home Irish Open off the back of a 42nd at the Scottish and a 16th place finish in high winds in Sweden. Home support behind and could contend at a huge price if he gets the putter going.

Pick 6: Peter Lawrie E/W @ 80/1 (PP) Another home hope not given much chance this week in Killarney. Lawrie seems to be a somewhat inconsistent player with no real pattern to his results. His last tournaments read 89, 18, 21, 75 but again with home support behind and being one of the most accurate off the tee on tour, he could be one to watch this week, especially if the wind does blow.

Note: If you're betting E/W, take advantage of Bet365's offer up to £200 in free bets to use on the upcoming golf events.
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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