The biggest major of the season gets underway this week as the Open Championship hits Sandwich and Royal St. Georges and as ever, there is some huge value on Betfair, especially on the perceived outsiders and with the weather set to play a big part, this is something to try and take advantage of as 400/1 Louis Oosthuizen did last year. See my trading section here.

Open Championship Picks
Pick 1: Lee Westwood E/W @ 10/1 (general) In form, top links player and the best player in the field IMO. Major void must end soon and the Open Championship, where Westwood is always a factor is the best bet. If the wind blows, this will be an added advantage. According to McDowell, position off the tee will be vital at this week's Open Championship and not many better drivers of the ball than Westwood.

Pick 2: Martin Kaymer @ 20/1 (Boylesports) 26 on B/f - Again, noted for his ability to control his ball flight in bad weather. Kaymer has had a poor season by his standards but he's shown signs of a return to form after recent changes to his Caddy and his golf swing. Recent winner of the Alfred Dunhill links Championship, mentally 1 of the strongest on tour and standout price for the British Open Championship with Boyle paying 8 places

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Pick 3: Graeme McDowell @ 28/1 (general) 34 on B/f - Graeme wasn't really on the radar before he put in a good showing in Scotland last week convincing me his game is back on track. Growing up at Royal Portrush, there aren't many players better equipped for links golf. Great scrambler which could be key this week.

Pick 4: Adam Scott E/W @ 50/1 (pp) 70 on B/f - Adam Scott has had a dramatic return to form over the last year or so. Has a new longer putter that's serving him well, competent in the wind and most notably, he's been working with Steve Williams (Tiger woods' Caddy) while Woods has been off. This can only make him much stronger mentally and Scott has been benefiting from his experience and can do so again at the Open Championship assuming Williams will be with him once more. Coming off a T3 last time out at the AT&T.

Pick 5: Peter Hanson E/W @ 60/1 (Boyle) 95 on B/f - Followers of Nicspicks will know that I've been backing Hanson a lot lately and he's been giving us a run for our money and some returns without going on to win. That win though may not be far away considering the form he is in. Again, great wind player which he's shown with a win at the Iberdrola Open and a recent place in high winds in Wales. Also 1 of the best drivers on tour.

Pick 6: Angel Cabrera E/W @ 66/1 (Boyle) 95 on B/f - I'm generally not a fan of Cabrera due to his attention span of a goldfish and general lack of interest in the lesser events but he seems to thrive in the spotlight of the bigger tournaments. Has Open Championship form and T2 last week in Scotland. It's all about the putter for him; if he can keep the 5' missed putts off the card, he could contend.

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Open Championship Sleeper Picks
Tip: As mentioned, there are so many players that can win the Open Championship, especially if the weather is bad and a lot of them are at huge prices on Betfair. The likes of Anders Hansen (380), Danny Willett (630), Ryan Palmer (330), Joost Luiten (480) and Bill Haas (330) are all very appealing prices that standout and it's always worth having a few small bets for trading purposes on players like these, as anyone that had Oosthuizen last year will tell you! Simon Dyson (300) is my standout sleeper bet though for the 2011 Open Championship. Fantastic links player with multiple wins at the KLM Open and a win at the Dunhill Links. Great in the wind and coming into form.

Note: If you're betting E/W, take advantage of Bet365's offer up to £200 in free bets to use on this week's British Open championship.
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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