2011 Travelers Championship Picks

Pick 1: Bubba Watson E/W @ 20/1 (general) Had some personal success with Watson here last year where he pretty much over powered the golf course with his driving ability. Started the US Open last week looking good only to fade but shows his game is close to peaking again. His record at the Travelers Championship is top notch and I expect the defending champion to be the man to beat again this week.

Pick 2: Zach Johnson E/W @ 25/1 (general) Expect plenty of birdies this week at the Travelers where the scoring is generally very low. Putting will be a key stat and Johnson is 1 of the best putters on tour. 3 top 25's here to his name and the TPC River Highlands plays under 7,000 yards which will suit Johnson. Return to form last week at Congressional.

Pick 3: Bo Van Pelt E/W @ 30/1 (general) Fantastic current and course form and another who's driving ability can over power the golf course. Regular feature on the leaderboard at the Travelers Championship down the years and can't be ignored at that price...

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Pick 4: Brandt Snedeker E/W @ 28/1 (general) In fine form but most notably ranks 3rd on the tour in the putting stats which as mentioned will be key at the Travelers Championship, especially from the 15-20' range.

Pick 5: Aaron Baddeley @ 50/1 (general) A lot of my own favs this week have been priced up as the actual favourites, leaving big value further down the market list for the likes of Baddeley, Ogilvy and Poulter. Baddeley is the standout for me. When on form (which he is this season so far) he usually sits high up on the putting and birdie making stats and could be well suited to the TPC River Highlands course this week.

GOLF TRADING: For those who aren't aware, the betting exchanges offer much better odds on the golf and Betfair is where I do all my golf betting/trading. Check out my golf trading section here for more info.

£200 sign up bonus: If you're backing E/W, Bet365 are offering up to £200 in free bets to new customers.

Travelers Championship Sleeper Pick
Pick 6: Brandt Jobe E/W @ 60/1 (general) Came out of nowhere this year to feature regularly on the leaderboards in some big events in recent weeks. Confidence flying and leads the tour in both total driving and total birdies and on a short and relatively easy course at the Travelers Championship, I can't ignore those stats.
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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