2011 AT & T National Picks

AT & T National Picks
Pick 1: Ryan Moore E/W @ 22/1 (general) Moore is the obvious candidate in this years AT & T National at Aronimink. 2nd in last years event and off the back of a 2nd place last week. Interviewed after his 4th round, says his game is in great shape and with his all round solid style, he is ideally suited to the difficult Aronimink track.

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Pick 2: Bo Van Pelt E/W @ 25/1 (general) I've been on BVP for a few weeks now and I'm going to stick with him again at the AT & T National. Tied 11th here last year and on a more difficult course this week, he could have an edge with his ability from tee to green. His putter has been letting him down in recent weeks in terms of getting himself into a winning position but pars are key at Aronimink where scoring could be quite difficult.

Pick 3: Webb Simpson E/W @ 30/1 (Betfred) In great form over the last few weeks and leads the tour in the all round ranking. Poor final day last week by his recent standards when I expected him to maybe make a run at Jacobsen and will be eager to make up for not doing so at the AT & T National this week. Aronimink is noted for its undulating greens and Simpsom is ranked 8th in putting average.

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Pick 4: Rickie Fowler E/W @ 40/1 (general) I still havn't figured Rickie Fowler out in terms of what courses he is suited to and what courses he is not. I don't think there is any particular pattern to him and so I've decided to back him in any event with a relatively modest field where he's priced @ 40/1 or above. The fact that he's ranked 3rd this year in putting average also catches the eye.

Pick 5: Carl Pettersson E/W @ 50/1 (general) Biggest odds but just as likely a winner of the AT & T National as my previous picks. Put himself in a great position to win this event after 3 rounds last year only to put in a poor final round performance. Pettersson is a 4 time winner on the PGA Tour and is simmering at the moment on the back of 2 top 25's. Ranks 21 in putting average and often plays well on the more difficult courses.

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Golf Player Profiles

Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022

My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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