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Pick 1: Lee Westwood E/W @ 16/1 (general) Everything about Lee Westwood says he is going to challenge strongly at the US Masters for his first major title. His tee to green game is a perfect fit for the US Masters and Augusta. Warmed up nicely at the Houston Open and last year at the US Masters, he seemed to have the edge on the Augusta course.

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Pick 2: Nick Watney E/W @ 18/1 (general) Provided us a 22/1 winner a few weeks back and the big hitting accurate iron players are the focus for the US Masters to avoid long putts and awkward chips. Putting from inside 5' will also be important and Watney is right up there in that stat. Has destroyed the Augusta course in spurts.......

Pick 3: Matt Kuchar E/W @ 33/1(general) Noted here for his all round game, Kuchar sits at the top of the par 5 scoring stat and that could play a key role at the US Masters. Fantastic short putter and warming up nicely at the Shell

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Pick 4: Paul Casey E/W @ 33/1(general) Ticks all the right boxes with great US Masters Augusta course form, length off the tee, accurate iron play and again, right up there in the short putting stats. Casey could be my best pick this week in terms of E/W value.

Pick 5: Anthony Kim E/W @ 50/1(general) Was waiting to see how kim performed at the Shell and although he's impossible to predict, he is another who can over power the Augusta course, having finished last year with a round of -8 and can't be ignored now at that price.

Pick 6: Steve Stricker E/W @ 55/1 Big price is what catches the eye on Stricker for the US Masters. Looks to have found his putting touch again with a new grip. Driving the ball well and working hard at home on his game recently at home in Wisconsin.

US Masters Sleeper Picks:
Pick 7: KJ Choi E/W @ 66/1 (general) Close to victory last time out at the Arnold Palmer, good US Masters course form and all the attributes to do well

Pick 8: Francesco Molinari E/W @ 70/1 (general) Tee to green game being so strong means he could very well avoid all those treacherous long putts and chips and this will give him a real advantage over a lot of the field. Been working very hard on his putting.

Note: Some bookmakers will be paying out extra places on the US Masters

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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