2011 The Heritage Picks

The Heritage Picks
Pick 1: Ian Poulter E/W @ 40/1 (general) Ball striking and accuracy are the premium around the Harbour Town links and Poulter is great at controlling his shot shape off the tee. He was on the radar for the Heritage last year but didn't compete. Great short putter and can take advantage on very small greens. Has the intelligence to plot his way around the course.

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Pick 2: Francesco Molinari E/W @ 40/1 (PP) Not too much course experience but if ball striking is a premium I can't ignore Molinari @ 40's who is 1 of the best from tee to green in the game....

Pick 3: Bo Van Pelt E/W @ 40/1 (general) Let us down last week but the windy conditions made it a lottery. Again another great ball striker with great driving ability and it shows with his record at the Heritage.

Pick 4: Brian Gay at 35/1 (general) Demolished the field at Hilton Head a couple of years ago and the Harbour town course couldn't be more suited. If he gets his putter working again on the aforementioned small greens, he will be right up there.

The Heritage sleeper Picks: (Fabulous prices on Betfair for trading purposes) A couple of guys with great records here are at big prices this week, namely Boo Weekley and Davis Love but with their lack of recent form I'll look towards Heath Slocum and Ben curtis both in the triple figure odds range. Slocum is in the mould of Brian Gay, short accurate plotter and good putter with a standout record at the Heritage and Curtis, while his record isn't so good, he's hitting some good form this season and has all the attributes to tackle the course. 77% accuracy off the tee.
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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Golf Betting Tips Strategy

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