2011 The Heritage Picks

The Heritage Picks
Pick 1: Ian Poulter E/W @ 40/1 (general) Ball striking and accuracy are the premium around the Harbour Town links and Poulter is great at controlling his shot shape off the tee. He was on the radar for the Heritage last year but didn't compete. Great short putter and can take advantage on very small greens. Has the intelligence to plot his way around the course.

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Pick 2: Francesco Molinari E/W @ 40/1 (PP) Not too much course experience but if ball striking is a premium I can't ignore Molinari @ 40's who is 1 of the best from tee to green in the game....

Pick 3: Bo Van Pelt E/W @ 40/1 (general) Let us down last week but the windy conditions made it a lottery. Again another great ball striker with great driving ability and it shows with his record at the Heritage.

Pick 4: Brian Gay at 35/1 (general) Demolished the field at Hilton Head a couple of years ago and the Harbour town course couldn't be more suited. If he gets his putter working again on the aforementioned small greens, he will be right up there.

The Heritage sleeper Picks: (Fabulous prices on Betfair for trading purposes) A couple of guys with great records here are at big prices this week, namely Boo Weekley and Davis Love but with their lack of recent form I'll look towards Heath Slocum and Ben curtis both in the triple figure odds range. Slocum is in the mould of Brian Gay, short accurate plotter and good putter with a standout record at the Heritage and Curtis, while his record isn't so good, he's hitting some good form this season and has all the attributes to tackle the course. 77% accuracy off the tee.

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Golf Player Profiles

Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022

My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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