2011 Shell Houston Open Picks

The field this week for the Shell Houston Open an awful lot weaker than I expected it would be. The Shell Houston Open is the annual warm up for the Masters and the course sets up very similar with large, fast greens, making accurate approach shots the key and distance off the tee a big help. I will be staying well away from the Shell Houston Open market leaders this week and focusing completely on the perceived outsiders.

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Shell Houston Open Picks
Pick 1: Jason Day E/W @ 50/1 (general)Getting stronger as the season goes on and has the game to do well around Redstone. Likes the big events and will hang around if he gets into contention......


Pick 2: Steve Marino E/W @ 50/1 (PP) Strange price on Marino for the Shell Houston Open where he has a good record and coming off the back of a near miss last week. Could be a good trading opportunity after round 3 as his Sunday performance is generally bad. Very accurate with his short irons.

Pick 3: Vaughn Taylor E/W @ 100/1(Skybet - price change)Taylor a regular feature on the Shell Houston Open leaderboard and runner up to Anthony Kim only last year, losing out in a playoff. Simmering right now and big price catches the eye.

Pick 4: Lucas Glover E/W @ 80/1 (PP)Signs of a return to form in his last outing 2 weeks ago. Long and straight off the tee and a good record around Redstone. Course suits his game.

Sleeper Pick

Pick 5: Nick 'o Hern E/W @ 225/1 (B365 - price change)Top 5 here 2 years ago and a top 30 last week. Loves fast and firm conditions.

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Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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