2011 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks

2011 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks:

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With the big names headlining the field at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, there's some E/W value or decent golf trading opportunities further down the betting list and the following are some standout for me:

Pick 1: Justin Rose E/W @ 33/1 (general) Will stick with Rose this week after he let us down in the final round of the Transitions. In good form and confidence obviously high and will be eager to make up for his sunday collapse.....

Pick 2: Martin Laird E/W @ 40/1 (general) Ticks all the right boxes this week for the Arnold Palmer Invitational in terms of current form and attributes to tackle Bay Hill, being right up there in the total driving and scrambling stats.

Pick 3: Brandt Snedeker E/W @ 55/1 (general) Good course form at Bay Hill and like Laird, has the right attributes to have a real go this week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. 1 of the best putters on tour and the rest of his game in great shape right now.

Pick 4: Kevin Na E/W @ 66/1 (general) I tipped big Ernie to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational on Nic's Picks last year so was obviously watching closely down the stretch. Kevin Na and E. Molinari were challenging strongly and Na impressed me a lot. In decent form right now so a must pick for me.

Sleeper Picks

Pick 5: Sean O' Hair E/W @ 66/1 (general) Fantasic record at Bay Hill and runaway leader here at the half way point 2 years ago. Showed signs of form at the Tavistock cup and big price this week.

Pick 6: Peter Hanson E/W @ 80/1 (general) Hanson now ranked in the top 30 in the world. Very consistent player and great driver of the golf ball which grabs my attention for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Fine performance at the Transitions and overpriced.

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Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022

My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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