Dutching, Trading And Spread Betting

A section I've created a for the more astute punters and advanced bettors that follow Nic's Picks.

Some profitable areas for me at the moment are pre match trading on football markets such as the win-draw-win and goal index betting markets, spread betting on corners, goals and player performance and dutching markets such as the man of the match, winning margin correct score on the football.

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For Trading I will invest 10units per trade, 5 pts (total) per dutch bet and spreads at between 1-3 units.

Trading:+1.38pts Dutching: -4.25pts Spreads: +0.4pts

Spread bet:Sevilla v Valencia - 3pts spread (buy) goals @ 2.88 (Betfair) (See Bet of the week)

Dutching - Bolton v Blackpool Skybet MOTM: 2.5pts Elmander and 2.5pts Davies @ 5/4(combined odds) skybet, Expect Blackpool to continue their attacking approach and that means space for the 2 Bolton strikes to exploit. Strong probability that 1 or both will be key tomorrow.

Dutching: Arsenal vs Newcastle first booking: 2.5pts Kevin Nolan, 2.5pts Tiote @ 11/2 (best combined price). In recent weeks, Nolan has dropped into the midfield area and Barton has pushed out to the right with Smith benched and I'm expecting a lot of Arsenal possession in the midfield area today with the tough tackling Nolan and Tiote making this a top value bet IMO. Tiote has picked up 3 bookings already in his short time at Newcastle. Result: Clichy (Tiote 2nd booking)

Dutching: Winning margin: Bursaspor v Manchester UTD - 5pts Man utd to win by 1 (3.06pts), by 2 (1.94pts) goals @ 2.14 (combined best prices). Utd will likely play 1 up top and fill the midfield with 5 across to keep it tight. I'd fancy them to nick this 1 by the odd goal with the form of Nani possibly being the difference. Result: 0:3


Dutching: Wolves v City - FSB Man Of The Match (skybet): 3pts Adebayor, 2pts Milner @ 2.4 (combined), As mentioned in the premier league preview, still fancy City strongly in this 1 even without tevez and Milner and Adebayor very much the most likely to do the damage. Result: Milner 67pts

Dutching: FSB Man Of The Match (skybet) - 2.6pts Van der vaart @ 5.5, 2.4pts Gareth bale @ 6.00. Combined odds: 2.87 - Very strong looking bet tomorrow with 1 of the runners Arteta a doubt. Dutching these 2 in spurs this season in this market would have yielded massive returns. By far, Spurs most important and dangerous players. Result: Leighton Baines

Ryder Cup: To hole winning putt: 5pts(combined) Donald, Harrington, Westwood and Jiminez @ 4.87 (best prices available) If you read my short Ryder Cup preview, you'd know that I strongly fancy Europe and having played in team events like this in the past, I know that you should put your strongest players (in terms of experience and quality together) out at the most important time and that would mean in match 7-10 or there abouts in the singles on Sunday. so if Monty is of the same thinking, those 4 players, if Europe take a decent lead from the doubles (which I expect) have a better chance of clinching the Ryder Cup than the odds would suggest. Result: McDowell


Dutching: FSB (skybet) Man of the match: Dutch Tevez 2.5pts (5/1) and Drogba 2.5pts(5/1) @ 2/1 (combined price) Looks like it will be a tight game in Manchester and 1 of the 2 main men are the likely candidates to be key to either teams success. Result: Tevez (64pts)

Dutching: First Player Booking : 2.62pts Joey Barton and 2.38pts Alan Smith @ 5.24 - Followers of Nic's Picks will know that I'm watching the booking's markets closely this year when Newcastle are involved and this strategy has already been successful this year. Result: Void (Smith N/R)


Spread Bet: Malaga v Sevilla - Total goals index: 2pts Buy goals @ 2.8, Malaga this season have a new found attacking flair with serious pace up front and this set them up for a thriller last week against Zaragoza. With sevilla only playing an attacking game, we should have another open goal filled game on Sunday night. Result: 1:2


Dutching: Blackburn v Fulham - Winning margin: 5pts Blackburn win by 1 (3.08pts) or 2(1.92pts) goals @ 2.3 (best prices available) Blackburn very very strong at home but not free scoring and Fulham now without key front man Bobby Zamora. I can see a low scoring narrow win for the home side. Result: 1-1


Trading: (Thursday morning) Hercules v Valencia over 2.5 goals (10 units back @ 2.0) After Valencia's 4:0 away win midweek and Hercules' win away at Barca and the firepower on show for both sides, I'm expecting the overs to come in a notch by Sunday. Generally cut to 10/11 across the board and coming in to 5/6 already in some books already. I'm expecting a very open game with a few goals. Update: Unfortunately this price moved the opposite way to what I expected and I had to trade out early Sunday at a price of 2.08 leaving me with a loss of -0.39pts


Trading: I'm eyeing up the Sunderland v Man City match for trading. They(City) are being priced up between 1/1 and 11/10 and there should be some decent money on about the 2.1 on betfair. I expect the market to jump on that and City to be backed in to about 1.85 come Friday night, especially if they have a good result tonight against Liverpool. Updates to follow...

Update 1: 10pts Back Man City to beat Sunderland @ 2.05 (Betfair)
Update 2: (Sat afternoon) Lay price: 1.88, profit after equalising = 0.9pts


Dutching - Newcastle v villa first player booking: 1.87pts Joey Barton, 1.87pts Alan Smith. 1.26pts Richard Dunne @ 3.75 - I'm watching Newcastle closely this season in the bookings markets and anyone backing Barton to be the first booked at OT on monday would have had themselves a nice 10/1 winner. With this being the first Prem home game in about 18 months for Newcastle, expect the crowd to be fired up and Barton and Smith to inflict some damage. Dunne is always a potential yellow card victim due to his no nonsense tackling. Atkinson in charge fresh off sending off Joe Cole last week, unfairly in my mind. Result: Barton first booking


Dutching: Super Cup - Inter v Atletico Correct score: 2.04pts (1:0), 1.48pts (2:0), 1.48pts (2:1) @ 2.65 (Bet365), Fancy this game to have a repeat pattern to the Champions League final with Inter getting on top eventually. Result: 0:2


Dutching: Young Boys v Spurs - 5pts (total) Correct Score @ 3.55(Betfair), 0:2 (1.97pts), 1:2 (1.89pts), 1:3 (1.14pts) As mentioned in my preview, I expect Spurs to get a few goals in this 1 and eventually take control of the tie. Result: 3:2


Trading: (posted 9th Aug) I'm a little late after the news that O' Neill has left Villa - West Ham's price is coming in fast but still on offer at 4/1 (5.0). Back Westham and look to lay on Betfair later in the week.

Trade 1: 10 units (back) Westham v villa @ 5.0.
Update:(Aug 11) Action has stopped for the moment and I'm not sure what way it's going to move now so I'll get out at lay price 4.6. Profit after equalising: +0.87pts
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

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To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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