Picks record
| Staked: 120.75 pts | Returned: 115.78pts | Profit: -4.97pts |
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In this section I'll be keeping a record of football bets from a mix of various markets from month to month. I'll be using a staking system with 1-5 unit scale depending on the strength of the bet and value in the price. Each bet will be given an estimated win expectation %. Regulars won't be surprised to see that I will be betting mainly with Betfair who offer a Free £25 Bet on signup. For anyone following my corner bets, a Bet365 account is essential.
Football TIPS OF THE WEEK
PLEASE NOTE: The week's best bets can now be found on the homepage
Valencia v Villarreal: 3.5pts over 2.5 goals @ 1.96(Betfair) 2 attack minded teams with 4 top quality strikers likely to be on show. Look for some fast incisive breaks on the counter from both sides.
Barcelona v Bilbao: 2pts Bojan anytime scorer @ 13/10(Extrabet) Bojan should get a run from the start tonight and is 1 of La Liga's top finishers. Whatever side Barca put out will create numerous clear cut opportunities against Bilbao.
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Blackpool v Spurs: 3.5pts Over 3.5 goals @ 11/8(SJ) Goalfest potentially on the cards this Sunday as Spurs travel to Blackpool with 2 of the Premier League's most attacking teams. I'm looking at Defoe to be very prominent in this 1 and 5/1 on a Defoe brace is good value for me. Result:Void
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Sevilla v Dortmund: 3.5pts over 2.5 goals @ 4/5 (Betfair) 70% - Borussia Dortmund must come out and attack from the off if they are to pip Sevilla for qualification from the group. Only a win will do for the German league leaders and Sevilla don't know how to just sit back. We should see both teams going for it and some goals despite Sevilla's lack of key attacking players. Will still be 3 or 4 top forwards on show. Result: 2:2
Sevilla v Dortmund: 4.5pts corners over 9.5 @ 4/5(VC) 75-80% Add to the above the fact that Sevilla focus their attacks down the flanks with out and out wingers like Capel and this is a mind boggling price and line. Result: 7 (maybe the odds compiler @ VC could forsee Sevilla diving around like little kids to drown out the game!)
Manchester UTD v Arsenal 4pts over 2.5 goals @ 1/1 (Betfair)70-75%, Fancy a wide open end to end attacking game tonight and with the firepower on show, we should see some goals. Result: 1:0
Hercules v Malaga: 3.5pts Total home goals over 1.5 @ 1/1 (Bet365) Malaga have adopted a new attacking strategy this year under their new manager and Hercules, with trezeguet and co, have the goal scoring threat to take advantage of the spaces left. Result: 4:1
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Westham v Man Utd: 4pts over 6 away corners @ 1/1 (Hills) 70%, I'm expecting a strong lineup from UTD tonight with possible pacey players like Hernandez and Obertan coming in who can hit the bylines in behind the Westham defense on the small Upton Park playing area. Also expect a good atmosphere leading to a fast paced game with more action. Result: 7
Barcelona v Real Madrid: 2.5pts Real Madrid to score 2+ goals at 13/8(Boylesports) 50%, Madrid attack being underestimated by some sportsbooks. Barcelona's defense isn't as good as the stats suggest (their great record comes from retaining the ball and not letting the opposition near their goal that way) and the pace of Madrid's counter attack will upset them. Ronaldo will want to take centre stage over Messi and expect a good showing from him. Result: 5:0
1.25pts Messi to score a brace @ 6/1 Bet365, 40%, while the Madrid attack is being underestimated, their defense is also being overestimated like Barca's defense. Again, they havn't really been tested this year and I expect Barca to continue their goal scoring in what will IMO likely be a goal filled game. Result: No goal
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Spurs v Liverpool: 3.5pts over 2.5 goals @ 2.02 (Betfair)70%, Give me evens on any Spurs game this season hitting the over 2.5 goals and I'll bite your hand off. Defoe may return and look to Torres' pace to get in behing Spurs as they push up. Result: 2:1
Spurs v Liverpool: 2pts Torres anytime scorer @ 15/8(SJ), 50% | 1pt Brace @ 12/1 (PP) As mentioned, Torres loves playing against teams that push up and leave space in behind, especially on short pitches. I can see Torres getting a handful of clear cut chances in this game. Signs of a return to form of late and seems to up his game against the better sides. Result: No goal
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Tottenham v Werder Bremen: 2pts Jermaine Defoe anytime scorer @ 2.62 (Betfair), 50% | 1pt brace @ 7/1 (general) Bremen with a host of injuries in this 1 and while there are doubts about the fitness of Van der vaart and Bale, Defoe looks set to come in from the start. Expect Spurs to dominate possession and create plenty of chances for the little man. Result: VOID (Non starter)
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Sevilla v Mallorca: 2.25pts Sevilla win (-1) handicap @ 15/8 (B/sq), 45%. Under Ramos, many of Sevilla's home games not only resulted in victory but convincing victories and signs of a return to the form of old under Manzano. Sevilla's support is the best in the league and they get a head of steam up when things are going well. Result: 1:2
Valencia v Villarreal: 4pts over 2.5 goals @ (price change)2.04, 75% 2 attacking teams with creativity and firepower in abundance. Should be an open game and a high scoring match wouldn't surprise me at all. Result: 1:1
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Zaragoza v Sevilla: 3pts over 2.5 goals @ 1.93 (Betfair)Little standout value around the fixtures in Spain and England this weekend but decent price on some goals in this 1. Zaragoza's last 2 matches have produced 8 goals and Sevilla will go to attack. Result: 1:2
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N'castle v Blackburn 2pts score/win double Ncastle/Carroll @ 7/2 (Betfred), 45%, I tipped Carroll to score v Arsenal and fancy him again tonight. Newcastle look great recently and Ameobi and Carroll up top look a real fierce opposition for any defense. Plenty of balls into the box tionight should see Blackburn come unstuck. Result: Lose
Wigan v Liverpool: 2pts Fernando Torres skybet FSB man of the match @ 9/2 (Skybet), 40%, Silly odds after Torres' brace against Chelsea will have him flying in confidence and eager to carry on his vein of form against a Wigan side that won't just sit back. That will play into the hands of Torres and a good value bet tonight. Result: Rodallega (by 1pt over Torres)
Spurs v Sunderland: 1.75pts Asamoah Gyan anytime scorer @ 3/1, 40-45% | 0.5pts brace @ 30/1 (PaddyPower) good outside value bet tonight as Gyan comes in under the radar in the continued absence of Darren Bent. Spurs at White Heart Lane will nearly always give the main opposition striker clear cut chances and top finisher Gyan has been on fire this season when given the chance. Scored a brace at the weekend. Result: Win (1 goal)
Sevilla v Valencia: 5pts over 2.5 goals @ 1.83 , 80% - 2 very attacking teams with 4 top quality strikers likely to be on show. Sevilla at home under their new manager will be like the all out attacking Sevilla of old under Ramos. Top price. Result: 2:0
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Spurs v Inter Milan Tips: 2.25pts Samuel Eto anytime scorer @ 9/5 Betfair, 40-45% | 1pt Eto brace @ 9/1 (Skybet). Serious danger on the counter attack with his pace in behind and finishing ability. Scorer of 5 in his last 2 champions league appearances due to playing against defenses with high lines and could be more tonight. Scored at Stamford Bridge last year in a similar scenario. Result: 1 goal
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Bolton v Liverpool Tip: 1.5pts Fernando Torres Skybet Man of the match @ 5/1 (Skybet) great value on a man who can build on the back of his goal last week. The type of match today where Torres can thrive and it wouldn't be surprising to see him on the scoresheet again, maybe more than once. Result: Cahill
Manchester UTD vs Spurs Tip: 2pts Javier Hernandez anytime goal scorer @ 13/10 (Bwin), 55-60% | 1pt Hernandez brace @ 7/1 (Skybet) Confidence high off a brace last week and followers of Nic's Picks will know I love backing pacey players to score against Spurs as Redknapp plays a high line in defense. Result: No goal
Barcelona v Sevilla Tip: 3pts David Villa anytime scorer @ 1.9, 65%. Should be a goal fest at Camp Nou and Sevilla will come out and attack which David Villa will love. Result: Brace
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Westham v Newcastle: Joey Barton to be booked @ 5/2 (Unibet). Great looking bet with Barton in a midfield battle with Parker and Noble on what is a very tight pitch. Expect plenty of fierce tackles in the middle tomorrow. Chris Foy referees. Result: No Booking
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Westham v Fulham: 2.5pts Carlton Cole to score / Westham to win double @ 4/1 (Betfred), 40%, The latest market I've been exploiting is the score/win market with selected bookmakers who are giving very generous odds and Westham off the back of a confidence boosting win against Spurs and can build on that against a Fulham side with injury problems in their striking department. Result: Void (Non starter)
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Inter v Werder Bremen: 2pts Score / Win double: Diego Milito / Inter @ 9/4(Betfred) 40-45% | 1pt Milito brace @ 7/1 (Skybet) Bremen play an attacking style game which will play into Inter's hands in Italy tonight. I expect plenty of decent chances especially for the home side with Sneijder threading through balls if Bremen's defense pushes up. Result: Void (N/R)
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Westham v Spurs 2pts Rafael Van Der Vaart anytime scorer @ 11/4 (Bet365), 40%, 1pt To score brace @ 20/1 (Bet365) Potentially playing up top off Crouch today and will get plenty of opportunities for his lethal shooting on a small Upton Park pitch. Result: No goal
Newcastle v Stoke 4pts Home team bookings over 1.5 @ 5/6 (Bet365), 75%, a price and line that looks compiled purely on Referee Mike Jones' card record so far an one I hope to take advantage of. Result: no bookings
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Spurs v Arsenal: Roman Pavlyuchenko to do the damage if he starts. Could cause serious problems for a young phsyically weak Arsenal defense (especially in the air). Has a great scoring record in this comp and tends to score in batches. Result: no goal
2pts Pavlyuchenko anytime scorer @ 15/8 (Boyle), 50% | 1pt To score brace @ 9/1 (general)
Real Madrid v Espanyol: 5pts Home corners over 6.5 @ 11/13 (Bwin),80%, Espanyol will come to defend and with the pace Real Madrid now have up top with Ozil, Ronaldo, Di Maria and Higuain etc and Xabi Alonso supplying the pinpoint through balls, expect them to hit the byline a lot and also create plenty of goal scoring opportunities. Great bet. Result: 8 Madrid corners
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Man UTD v Liverpool: 0.75pts First booking Vidic @ 12/1 (Skybet), 2pts Vidic to be booked anytime @ 9/4 (Skybet), 0.5pts Vidic to be sent off @ 20/1 (PP), Looking at the Fernando Torres vs Vidic matchup which has caused the Serbian a lot of trouble in recent years yielding a red in a recent encounter. He can't handle Torres' pace in behind and I can see him putting in a few rugby tackles over the 90 minutes when Liverpool counter attack. Result: No Booking
Hercules v Valencia: 4pts over 2.5 goals @ 1/1 (general), 70-75%, Looking at the lineup for Hercules last week, I've now marked them as a potential earner this season. Drenthe, Trezeguet and Valdez as well as Aguilar(from set pieces) give them a big goal threat and they have an ageing defence which can be got at. Valencia have lost Villa and Silva but brought in 2 of the best goal poachers in La Liga in Soldado And aduriz and I can see goals in this one. Valencia scored 4 in the CL this midweek away from home and 3 away in La Liga round 1. Result: 1:2
Malaga v Sevilla : 4pts over 2.5 goals @ 1.94 (Betfair), 70-75%, 2 very attacking looking outfits this year and neither will sit back. Malaga on the back of high scoring thriller against Zaragoza and both sides have a lot of pace in attacking areas and Sevilla are armed with some of the league's best finishers. Result: 1:2
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Real Madrid v Ajax: 2.5pts Higuain anytime scorer @ 1/1 (Betfair), 65% | 1pt Higuain brace @ 5/1 (Betfred) see main for preview Result: Pending (Betfred have paid out on a brace for now)
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Spurs V Young Boys - 2.5pts Crouch anytime scorer @ 11/8 (Betfair), 50-55% | Corners over 11 @ 5/6 (Bet365), 70%
Expect Spurs to throw the kitchen sink at Young boys early on with Bale and Lennon doing the damage down the flanks, whipping in balls to big Crouchy and Young Boys will get corners of their own with their pace in behind on the counter, especially if they go behind and have to come out. Plenty of balls should drop for Crouch in the box. Atmosphere will be great and that leads to a faster paced action packed game. White Heart Lane is a pretty short pitch conducive to corners. Results: Crouch Hattrick, Corners: Lose
Fulham v Man UTD 4pts Away corners over 6.5 @ 1/1 (Bet365), 75- 80% - Fulham is a small tight ground conducive to corners being won and under Hughes(who plays a high intensity attacking game) this season is a market to look at every other week at Craven cottage. I'd expect any 2 of Giggs, Valencia and Nani as well as an over lapping Evra together with the front men to get in behind on many occasions leading directly and indirectly to a high away corner count. 8/11 @ a line of 7.5 would be accurate. Result: (5:11)
Everton v Wolves - Wolves will go to Everton with defending the priority but with Everton pretty much full strength and the attacking talent of the front 6 players, it's hard to see them keeping Everton out. Expect them to win a lot of set pieces and probably benefit at some stage from them.
Selection Offering Value: 3.5pts Everton to score 2 or more goals @ 4/6 (general), 75% Result: 1-1
WBA v Sunderland - 2.5pts Darren Bent anytime scorer @ 15/8 (Coral), 50% | Longshot: 1pt Bent brace @ 10/1 (PP) - Expect Bent to capitalise with his pace on through balls from Steed Malbrangue and co as WBA push their back line forward and leave gaps in behind. Our friends at Paddypower are once again offering silly odds of 10/1 on a Bent Brace, double the odds of other books. Result: No goal
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Man Utd vs Newcastle - 2.5pts Dimitar Berbatov anytime scorer @ 2.7 (Betfair), 0.5pts Berbatov brace @ 6/1 (B/sq) As I mentioned in antepost betting, I fancy Berbatov for a decent season this year now that the pressure is off and he can feed off the confidence he has from a goal vs Chelsea in tonight's game which should yield a few good goal scoring opportunities for him. Newcastle with defensive problems. Result: 3:0 Berbatov scorer
Liverpool v Arsenal - Outside Bet: 1.5pts Joe Cole anytime scorer @ 4.9 (betfair) Joe Cole looks very much overpriced against what could be an understrength lineup for Arsenal at Anfield today. He's the type of player that will be great for Liverpool this season at home and could well cause Arsenal problems and be the key man for the Reds this afternoon. If you want to be bold, you can get the score / win double with Cole as high as 7/1 (Betfred) Result: Sent Off
Man UTD v N'Castle - Although Newcastle were in the Championship last year, they havn't changed that much and a trip to Old Trafford usually means a thrashing for them. Although it's early days, UTD have already hit form scoring a lot of goals in pre season / Community shield. With the firepower on show with Berbatov, Rooney and Owen all fit and Hernandez now there too, it could be a long returning fixture for Newcastle come Monday night.
Selection Offering Value - 2.5pts UTD to score 3 or more goals @ 11/8 (general), 50-55% Result: 3:0
Bolton v Fulham - 2.5pts Bolton win @ 13/10 (Betfair), 55%
After the changes at Fulham in the summer I think it will take them a bit of time to settle down. Bolton on the other hand have had a good preseason and their team looks to have a good balance and a real attacking flair. With Chung Yong Lee providing the through balls and Martin Petrov raiding the flanks and whipping in balls to huge strikers, they will be very dangerous this year especially at home and good value to kick off the season with a win @ 13/10. Result: 0-0
Spurs v Man City - 2.5pts Man City to score 2 or more goals @ 7/4 (skybet), 45%
Some of you will know that I've pegged Spurs this season as a team to look at in the betting, especially the goals markets and even their preseason has been goal filled. With an apparant lack of defensive organisiation and a very attacking philosophy, I'd fancy a team with City's firepower to create a fair few good opportunities on the counter and a decent chance to put away 2+ in what could be a thrilling season opener. Result: 0-0
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