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GOLF BETTING: BARCLAYS SCOTTISH OPEN PICKS

Share The annual build up to the year's biggest golfing event gets underway this week as the stars travel to Loch Lomond for the Barclay's Scottish Open...

A lot of Europe and America's elite will tee it up at the Barclay's Scottish Open at Loch Lomond as they warm up for next week's British Open Championship at St. Andrews. Hardly a course that will prepare them for the test ahead but most definitley a golf tournament to get the competitive juices flowing.

Looking at the market leaders in the betting, none really take my fancy (at the prices offered) for various reasons. Goosen, Els and Mickelson havn't played too much golf recently and McDowell has had a 3 week break since his triumph (Tipped antepost E/W at 100/1 for the Race To Dubai Title) at the US Open which propelled him to the top of the Race To Dubai standings. Defending champ Martin Kaymer was up there last week but anyone watching would have seen he wasn't really on his game. Instead I will be focusing mainly on the rank outsider for this week's Loch Lomond Barclay's Scottish Open Betting picks

The Course
Playing just over 7100 yards to a par of 71, the course is a test of all round ability. It doesn't really give an advantage to the longer hitters and accuracy is more the premium around the tree lined track and the winning score is usually low to mid teens under par.

Barclay's Scottish Open Selections Offering Value

Pick 1: Francesco Molinari E/W @ 33/1 (Ladbrokes) Off the back of a play off loss last week and tee to green game should set him up nicely here

Pick 2: Danny Willett E/W @ 66/1 (Ladbrokes) or 11/2 Top 10 (Betfair), Willett is a streaky player who came back to form last week. He can go on serious birdie runs and could be one to watch here this week

Pick 3: Gregory Havret E/W @ 80/1 (general) or Top 10 @ 8/1 Extrabet Havret had a poor French Open but not too surprising that he was so lethargic after a 2nd place in the US Open in his previous start. He is a former winner here so the course will suit.

If you're betting Top 10's in the golf, you'll generally get best prices at Betfair or Extrabet (who pay out in full for ties on Top 10's or Top 20's).

Sleeper(one to watch)
Martin Laird E/W @ 125/1 or Top 10 finish @ 9/1 (Betfair) Laird finished 10th here last year and will feel like he's on a free roll after qualifying for the British Open. He should play with a freedom and could be a dark horse.

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Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

Winning Golf Betting Tips:


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Ross McGowan 400/80 to 1 (place), Tony Finau 50/1, Cam Champ 125/1, Cam Davis 125/1, Matt Jones 80/1 and FRL, Max Homa 60/1, Dean Burmester 55/1, Sam Burns 80/1, KH Lee 200/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1 (FRL), Thorbjorn Olesen 45/1 (FRL), Stewart Cink 150/1, Lucas Herbert 175/1 and 60/1

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