The PGA Tour heads to Texas this week for the Shell Houston Open, the last stop before the first major of 2010 at Augusta National and Nic's Picks is trying to make it 3 big wins on the spin after Ernie Els at Bay Hill yesterday added to Rhys Davies' win in Morocco 2 weeks ago. The Shell Houston Open is set up to mimic playing conditions at Augusta National(Venue for the Masters) and is the ideal tournament for the stars to get ready for the big one.

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The Redstone tournament course itself plays about 7,500 yards with pretty generous fairways and conditions are usually fast and firm. Accuracy off the tee is not essential at the Shell Houston Open, it's more a bombers course, although there is water trouble on 10 holes so you had better not be too wild. Premium here is GIR% and putts per round. You really have to avoid being too far away from the pins after your approach shots as the greens are some of the biggest on tour and you're staring 3 putts in the face from wayward approaches.

Of the market leaders, there are some with outstanding course form such as Mahan and Ogilvy and at 33/1, Ogilvy certainly catches my attention and he's not the only Aussie on my shortlist this week. Bookie's favourite Paul Casey is also the man I fancy strongly here(defending champion) but I can't have him at such a short price. Phil Mickelson hasn't featured at the Shell Houston Open much in recent years and when he has, he hasn't done much. Stay tuned for expert Shell Houston Open picks.

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Golf Player Profiles

Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.

Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022

My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model

To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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