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GOLF BETTING: SHELL HOUSTON OPEN PICKS

Shell Houston Open Value Picks | Back to preview

IMPORTANT: Recommended sportsbooks for golf betting with Nic's Picks: Ladbrokes - generally better value prices for the market leaders. Extrabet - The only sportsbook to pay out in full for place ties. Free bets at both.

- 1pt E/W Geoff Ogilvy @ 25/1 (Ladbrokes) Ogilvy ha a great recent record at Redstone and it's hardly surprising as courses with generous fairways and fast, firm conditions are courses where Ogilvy thrives.

- 1pt E/W Adam Scott @ 60/1 (bet365) Absolutely loves this course, previous winner, can go VERY low round here and shown signs that he's coming back to form in recent outings

- 1pt E/W Carl Pettersson Top European @ 33/1 (Stanjames) Pettersson let me down a little last week after he looked back to his best in the week previous but he didn't do too badly and it may have been that the Bay Hill course just didn't fit his eye as well as Redstone might. Can't resist these odds in a market with only about 30 runners.

- 2pts Nick O' Hern Top 10 finish @ 13/2 (Extrabet) O' Hern finished in the top 5 two weeks ago and went on to burn up the course and be the player of the tourmanent in the Tavistock Cup. He sat it out last weekend and should be raring to go in the Shell, where he also carded a top 5 finish last year. Likes fast and firm conditions.

- 2pts Bo Van Pelt Top 20 finish @ 4/1 (Skybet) Van Pelt looking really steady of late. always seems to be hanging in and around the leaderboard. Solid record here and a great price for a top 20.

Benefit from any tips? Thank me with a beer :)

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2025/26) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

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