GOLF BETTING: SHELL HOUSTON OPEN PICKS

Shell Houston Open Value Picks | Back to preview

IMPORTANT: Recommended sportsbooks for golf betting with Nic's Picks: Ladbrokes - generally better value prices for the market leaders. Extrabet - The only sportsbook to pay out in full for place ties. Free bets at both.

- 1pt E/W Geoff Ogilvy @ 25/1 (Ladbrokes) Ogilvy ha a great recent record at Redstone and it's hardly surprising as courses with generous fairways and fast, firm conditions are courses where Ogilvy thrives.

- 1pt E/W Adam Scott @ 60/1 (bet365) Absolutely loves this course, previous winner, can go VERY low round here and shown signs that he's coming back to form in recent outings

- 1pt E/W Carl Pettersson Top European @ 33/1 (Stanjames) Pettersson let me down a little last week after he looked back to his best in the week previous but he didn't do too badly and it may have been that the Bay Hill course just didn't fit his eye as well as Redstone might. Can't resist these odds in a market with only about 30 runners.

- 2pts Nick O' Hern Top 10 finish @ 13/2 (Extrabet) O' Hern finished in the top 5 two weeks ago and went on to burn up the course and be the player of the tourmanent in the Tavistock Cup. He sat it out last weekend and should be raring to go in the Shell, where he also carded a top 5 finish last year. Likes fast and firm conditions.

- 2pts Bo Van Pelt Top 20 finish @ 4/1 (Skybet) Van Pelt looking really steady of late. always seems to be hanging in and around the leaderboard. Solid record here and a great price for a top 20.

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Golf Player Profiles



Please note that player attribute ratings are derived from the official PGA Tour and European Tour golf stats, and updated with a rolling average each golf betting year for precision.


Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the increasingly popular annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges and runs the Sharp Sports Bettors Blog.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan also pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating. For example: Sam Horsfield at Celtic Manor vs TPC Southwind. This number will also portray ability level in terms of strokes gained total. Click "find out more" under the course fit golf betting model for info.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Note: all the most accurate up to date player and course data to input into this interactive golf betting model is in the NicsPicks Course Fit Manual 2022


My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats... find out more

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds. For example - a player shows form of T40 - 24 - 24, but last week he was in the leading PGA Tour group on Sunday with Tiger Woods and had a bad round due to nerves. His finishing position may not fully capture his actual form... See more with our calculators and betting tools

Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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